BTC is now around 69.3k. Last time I said whether 65k could be bought up—turns out it not only rallied, but in a day it surged straight to near the 70,000 level, up more than 7% within 24 hours.
First, the conclusion: the bias is bullish, but I won’t chase at this level.
The biggest difference from the previous rounds is the funding. Over the past three hours, spot net inflows were 26,000 BTC, and across 12 candles none were negative—every one was green. The key point is that open interest basically didn’t move, and the funding/fees are only around 0.01%—it’s not a fake surge built with leverage stacking. Real money is buying. With the breakout coming with volume, the market is repricing, and the intermediate-term foundation really has changed.
But don’t rush to get on board. Price is already running right along the weekly high at 70,450. Above it, the 70,000 psychological level is acting as resistance pressure. In the order book, the buy/sell volume ratio is only 0.14—sell orders are thicker than buy orders by a large margin, and the higher it goes, the harder it is. Over these seven hours, large accounts have also been reducing longs, with the longs’ share on the account side shrinking by nearly 9%. Add to that the fact that the daily chart has just entered overbought territory, and sentiment is heating up to above 8.5—chasing here can be uncomfortable if volatility is slightly amplified.
Put simply: the medium-term logic has turned better, but the short-term odds are only average. Wait for a pullback. If the breakout platform around 68k to 69k can be held, it’s better to enter there than to chase the 70,000 level. If you’re already on the ride, just watch whether 70k can be closed above with volume. If it can’t, you can trim a bit first.
#btc $BTC
First, the conclusion: the bias is bullish, but I won’t chase at this level.
The biggest difference from the previous rounds is the funding. Over the past three hours, spot net inflows were 26,000 BTC, and across 12 candles none were negative—every one was green. The key point is that open interest basically didn’t move, and the funding/fees are only around 0.01%—it’s not a fake surge built with leverage stacking. Real money is buying. With the breakout coming with volume, the market is repricing, and the intermediate-term foundation really has changed.
But don’t rush to get on board. Price is already running right along the weekly high at 70,450. Above it, the 70,000 psychological level is acting as resistance pressure. In the order book, the buy/sell volume ratio is only 0.14—sell orders are thicker than buy orders by a large margin, and the higher it goes, the harder it is. Over these seven hours, large accounts have also been reducing longs, with the longs’ share on the account side shrinking by nearly 9%. Add to that the fact that the daily chart has just entered overbought territory, and sentiment is heating up to above 8.5—chasing here can be uncomfortable if volatility is slightly amplified.
Put simply: the medium-term logic has turned better, but the short-term odds are only average. Wait for a pullback. If the breakout platform around 68k to 69k can be held, it’s better to enter there than to chase the 70,000 level. If you’re already on the ride, just watch whether 70k can be closed above with volume. If it can’t, you can trim a bit first.
#btc $BTC
