$BTC Evening Views: 8.18.
The Bitcoin (big pie) hourly timeframe is in consolidation after an upward move. The trading range is 64,500–64,000. In a consolidating, range-bound market like this, it’s not worth trading because it’s still choosing direction—up or down. Only after it shows a clear direction is it worth following.
Once Bitcoin breaks below 64,500–64,000, it should retest the midpoint of the consolidation box, around 63,584. This is not to say that a retest is not allowed—up and down is what a healthy uptrend looks like. However, the pullback must not fall below 63,584. If it does not break 63,584, the hourly timeframe remains in a strong long (bullish) zone. If it breaks 63,584, the hourly timeframe will shift from a strong long zone back to a weak long zone, with risk of further downside pullback.
If it breaks 63,584, and can’t quickly reclaim it, it will continue to pull back toward the long-term trendline indicated by the red arrows and the lower boundary of the box. That’s when the “high hanging” scenario comes—this means the hourly up move is effectively over.
So no matter how Bitcoin pulls back, as long as it doesn’t break 63,584, nothing is really wrong. If it breaks 63,584, the outlook turns cold/weak.
For the upward trend enclosed by the yellow box to continue, it must break above the box’s upper boundary, corresponding to 64,500. Only if it breaks 64,500 can the rebound continue to look toward around 65,500. Only if it breaks 64,500 can the downward trend on the hourly timeframe be considered completely over, and only then will a proper hourly reversal begin.
Up to now, the level 64,500 has been tested 4 times and failed to be broken. Another attempt still won’t break it—then Bitcoin will likely revert to a pullback. 64,500 is also the last “sham cover” for the bears. If Bitcoin breaks 64,500, bears should cut losses as needed; don’t stubbornly hold positions.
For those who are aggressive: if Bitcoin breaks 64,500 with volume, chase longs on the right side. If Bitcoin breaks down through 64,026 with volume and the subsequent retest cannot be reclaimed, then don’t chase longs—chase shorts on the right side instead, and place your stop loss properly.
On the hourly timeframe: once it breaks and holds above 64,500, look for 65,278–66,116. If it can’t get above 64,500, it’s useless.
On the 4-hour timeframe: if it breaks below 64,026, look for 63,502–62,683.
Please check the comments.
$BTC
#美元触及三个月低点
The Bitcoin (big pie) hourly timeframe is in consolidation after an upward move. The trading range is 64,500–64,000. In a consolidating, range-bound market like this, it’s not worth trading because it’s still choosing direction—up or down. Only after it shows a clear direction is it worth following.
Once Bitcoin breaks below 64,500–64,000, it should retest the midpoint of the consolidation box, around 63,584. This is not to say that a retest is not allowed—up and down is what a healthy uptrend looks like. However, the pullback must not fall below 63,584. If it does not break 63,584, the hourly timeframe remains in a strong long (bullish) zone. If it breaks 63,584, the hourly timeframe will shift from a strong long zone back to a weak long zone, with risk of further downside pullback.
If it breaks 63,584, and can’t quickly reclaim it, it will continue to pull back toward the long-term trendline indicated by the red arrows and the lower boundary of the box. That’s when the “high hanging” scenario comes—this means the hourly up move is effectively over.
So no matter how Bitcoin pulls back, as long as it doesn’t break 63,584, nothing is really wrong. If it breaks 63,584, the outlook turns cold/weak.
For the upward trend enclosed by the yellow box to continue, it must break above the box’s upper boundary, corresponding to 64,500. Only if it breaks 64,500 can the rebound continue to look toward around 65,500. Only if it breaks 64,500 can the downward trend on the hourly timeframe be considered completely over, and only then will a proper hourly reversal begin.
Up to now, the level 64,500 has been tested 4 times and failed to be broken. Another attempt still won’t break it—then Bitcoin will likely revert to a pullback. 64,500 is also the last “sham cover” for the bears. If Bitcoin breaks 64,500, bears should cut losses as needed; don’t stubbornly hold positions.
For those who are aggressive: if Bitcoin breaks 64,500 with volume, chase longs on the right side. If Bitcoin breaks down through 64,026 with volume and the subsequent retest cannot be reclaimed, then don’t chase longs—chase shorts on the right side instead, and place your stop loss properly.
On the hourly timeframe: once it breaks and holds above 64,500, look for 65,278–66,116. If it can’t get above 64,500, it’s useless.
On the 4-hour timeframe: if it breaks below 64,026, look for 63,502–62,683.
Please check the comments.
$BTC
#美元触及三个月低点