INCE is currently around 102. First, the conclusion—I'm not chasing it, and I'm not in a hurry to go long by buying at market or to short it by force. This is simply a waiting point to see the direction.

But there has been a change recently: on the contract side, the主动买盘 (active buy orders) has started to gain momentum. More than 70% of the成交 (trading) is主动吃单 (active taking orders), which is up over 50% compared with seven hours ago. Whale accounts with about 80% of their positions have been pressing long, and their holdings are also piling up. Clearly, the money on the leverage side is moving toward the bulls.

To put it plainly: when price dips to the 102 area, there are obviously people stepping in to pick it up. The lows are holding more steadily each time—price bounced from 102.3 to 102.8, and the selling pressure behind that 4-hour bearish candle has eased.

However, the issue is this—spot large orders have been blank the whole time. After five cycles, there has not been a single net inflow. Leverage moves first, but spot doesn’t follow—this kind of play has been seen too many times: futures try out the direction, and if spot capital doesn’t recognize it, even if it gets pulled up, there’s no follow-through.

In the last 24 hours, it’s still been down more than three points. The daily trend is pointing downward, and in the order book, sell orders are thicker than buy orders. The bulls show a bit of improvement, but it’s not to the extent where you can comfortably chase.

So at this level, don’t rush to enter a full position long, and don’t stubbornly force a short either. Wait for the spot large orders to truly follow in, or for the price to first digest the resistance overhead. Until direction is chosen and the money is confirmed, we’ll just watch and observe.

#intc $INTC