BTC 8.13 Macro Data Analysis｜PPI cools down, but that doesn’t mean you can directly go long
First, let’s correct the data interpretation:
The U.S. July PPI came in flat m/m at 0.0%, below the forecast of 0.2%; y/y it was 4.7%, down from the prior 5.5%. The commonly used core PPI was 0.2% m/m and 4.2% y/y. The previously mentioned 0.4% refers to a different measure after further excluding food, energy, and trade services, so it cannot be mixed up.
Overall, the data is fairly mild, which reduces near-term rate-hike pressure, but it is mainly driven by the pullback in energy prices—and it still hasn’t completed price confirmation for BTC.
My structure remains unchanged: the weekly chart is still in a downswing continuation, and for August I’m looking at the 62,500—65,500 range-bound box.
Today’s long entry plan is 62,788, with a stop loss at 62,108. This also aligns with the lower edge of the box, plus around 62,700 where roughly 250 million long positions are set for liquidation and there’s support from naked candlesticks.
First target: 64,000—64,500. If it only closes with an upper wick and fails to form a real bullish body, treat the rebound as ended. Only if it can rise in volume and hold above 64,500 do we continue to look toward around 65,000. If it breaks below 62,108, the low-long thesis is invalidated.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
PPI sets the trading environment—the price is what ultimately determines the trading outcome.
First, let’s correct the data interpretation:
The U.S. July PPI came in flat m/m at 0.0%, below the forecast of 0.2%; y/y it was 4.7%, down from the prior 5.5%. The commonly used core PPI was 0.2% m/m and 4.2% y/y. The previously mentioned 0.4% refers to a different measure after further excluding food, energy, and trade services, so it cannot be mixed up.
Overall, the data is fairly mild, which reduces near-term rate-hike pressure, but it is mainly driven by the pullback in energy prices—and it still hasn’t completed price confirmation for BTC.
My structure remains unchanged: the weekly chart is still in a downswing continuation, and for August I’m looking at the 62,500—65,500 range-bound box.
Today’s long entry plan is 62,788, with a stop loss at 62,108. This also aligns with the lower edge of the box, plus around 62,700 where roughly 250 million long positions are set for liquidation and there’s support from naked candlesticks.
First target: 64,000—64,500. If it only closes with an upper wick and fails to form a real bullish body, treat the rebound as ended. Only if it can rise in volume and hold above 64,500 do we continue to look toward around 65,000. If it breaks below 62,108, the low-long thesis is invalidated.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
PPI sets the trading environment—the price is what ultimately determines the trading outcome.