Tonight 20:30 CPI.
I feel it’s very likely another episode like last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
The downside news doesn’t really drop much, and the upside news doesn’t really rally much either. The data comes out and the market wavers and fights for a while. In the end, it all adds up to: it was basically hot air.
Now looking at it, the CPI YoY expectation still leans somewhat favorable—at least inflation hasn’t clearly gotten out of control, and there isn’t much reason for rate-hike expectations to suddenly re-accelerate.
But the MoM figure is a bit more bearish, because last month’s oil prices were stuck above 80 during the U.S.-Iran conflict. That effect should show up to some extent.
So if the data tonight is roughly in line with expectations, I’m actually not too worried about a drop.
If it really falls, I’ll wait for short-term signals to go long.
For example: a fast wick down, followed by a heavy sell-off on high volume and then a snapback; or it forms a bullish divergence with the early-morning low.
I think setups like that are actually opportunities.
My view on tonight is basically:
The data itself isn’t that important—what matters is how price action reacts to it.
If it’s just normal volatility, and it dips and then quickly recovers, I think the downside room is limited.
But if the data directly comes in severely above expectations, then we’ll see.
$BTC $ETH #CPI数据 #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
I feel it’s very likely another episode like last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
The downside news doesn’t really drop much, and the upside news doesn’t really rally much either. The data comes out and the market wavers and fights for a while. In the end, it all adds up to: it was basically hot air.
Now looking at it, the CPI YoY expectation still leans somewhat favorable—at least inflation hasn’t clearly gotten out of control, and there isn’t much reason for rate-hike expectations to suddenly re-accelerate.
But the MoM figure is a bit more bearish, because last month’s oil prices were stuck above 80 during the U.S.-Iran conflict. That effect should show up to some extent.
So if the data tonight is roughly in line with expectations, I’m actually not too worried about a drop.
If it really falls, I’ll wait for short-term signals to go long.
For example: a fast wick down, followed by a heavy sell-off on high volume and then a snapback; or it forms a bullish divergence with the early-morning low.
I think setups like that are actually opportunities.
My view on tonight is basically:
The data itself isn’t that important—what matters is how price action reacts to it.
If it’s just normal volatility, and it dips and then quickly recovers, I think the downside room is limited.
But if the data directly comes in severely above expectations, then we’ll see.
$BTC $ETH #CPI数据 #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉