The recent $BTC price has been grinding away within this narrow range... so is this really the bottom now? How long will this consolidation last?
Today, I’ll walk everyone through it from the perspective of Supply In Loss % - LTH.
In a true bear market, even “long-term holders (LTH)” will have a very high proportion in a loss state. Looking at the three past bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022:
Market bottom zone: Supply In Loss % - LTH will rise above 40%.
This means that even the most steadfast group in the market—nearly 40%—is in a losing condition, and the行情 will start to enter a boring consolidation phase.
When the data drops back below 40%, it indicates the market is beginning to recover and has entered the early stages of a bull market.
Looking back at the data across the past three cycles:
2014/12/16～2015/10/27: consolidation lasted 315 days.
2018/11/23～2019/05/04: consolidation lasted 162 days.
2022/09/24～2023/01/15: consolidation lasted 113 days.
And this round (2026/06/04～today) has already been above 40% for 68 days.
Using a “cutting a boat to find the sword” approach to estimate, the time to exit the bear bottom would likely fall around:
64-day version: starting after 08/07 (referencing the declining trend in 2018 and 2022)
113-day version: starting after 09/25
162-day version: starting after 11/13
315-day version: starting after 2027/04/15
So whether or not the price will dip one more time afterward, at the very least we can know that, in large probability, we’re already in the “bear bottom cycle”… everyone, please stay patient.
Today, I’ll walk everyone through it from the perspective of Supply In Loss % - LTH.
In a true bear market, even “long-term holders (LTH)” will have a very high proportion in a loss state. Looking at the three past bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022:
Market bottom zone: Supply In Loss % - LTH will rise above 40%.
This means that even the most steadfast group in the market—nearly 40%—is in a losing condition, and the行情 will start to enter a boring consolidation phase.
When the data drops back below 40%, it indicates the market is beginning to recover and has entered the early stages of a bull market.
Looking back at the data across the past three cycles:
2014/12/16～2015/10/27: consolidation lasted 315 days.
2018/11/23～2019/05/04: consolidation lasted 162 days.
2022/09/24～2023/01/15: consolidation lasted 113 days.
And this round (2026/06/04～today) has already been above 40% for 68 days.
Using a “cutting a boat to find the sword” approach to estimate, the time to exit the bear bottom would likely fall around:
64-day version: starting after 08/07 (referencing the declining trend in 2018 and 2022)
113-day version: starting after 09/25
162-day version: starting after 11/13
315-day version: starting after 2027/04/15
So whether or not the price will dip one more time afterward, at the very least we can know that, in large probability, we’re already in the “bear bottom cycle”… everyone, please stay patient.
