Empty empty empty! The probability of a short-term pullback for the big rocket $SPCXB is not low
First, let’s look at the fundamentals. SpaceX priced its IPO on June 12 at $135— the largest ever, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion.
In the first few days after listing, it surged to over $200, then bled lower all the way, hitting $104.83 in early August.
From the low of $133 to now, it’s rebounded 28%, and intraday it even briefly touched the IPO price of $135.
The Q2 earnings report isn’t actually bad:
Revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.54 billion, nearly triple.
All three lines—Starlink, launches, and Starshield—are expanding. The company itself is fine, even strong.
So why do I see a short-term pullback?
First, the technicals.
$135 is the IPO offering price, and also the cost basis for a large number of original shareholders. Naturally, there’s selling pressure at this level. The two months of capital that got trapped finally get back to breakeven—so will they run?
Above that, $140–$150 is the dense trading zone from the early listing period, with even heavier trapped positions.
Today, as soon as the stock tapped $135 intraday, it was slammed back down—suggesting the bears are defending this area.
Second, the other side of short-squeeze dynamics.
Short interest is 219 million shares, corresponding to 640 million shares in the float, and the short ratio is indeed high.
A short squeeze could happen, but it requires sustained buying pressure to force short sellers to cover.
Current volume is 55.6 million shares, not particularly large. If a real squeeze were to happen, you’d need a catalyst. Nothing like that is showing up now.
Third, unlock/expiration of the lock-up period.
For newly listed companies, long-term shareholders typically have lock-up periods. SpaceX has been listed for less than two months.
Historically, Professor Jay Ritter studied that in the first year after IPOs, new stocks on average underperform the broader market by double-digit percentages. The selling pressure after shareholders are freed from lock-ups isn’t a joke. This isn’t a problem unique to SpaceX—it’s a hurdle that every large IPO has to get through.
Fourth, capital expenditures.
In Q2, SpaceX spent $18.37 billion—2.4 times its revenue. Starship R&D, Starlink capacity expansion, and Starbase infrastructure are all burning cash like crazy.
The company may be good, but the pace of spending means it’s sensitive to financing conditions.
Analyst price targets range from $75 to $160—disagreement is wildly off the chart. It shows SpaceX still doesn’t have a true consensus valuation.
Long term, SpaceX is worth owning. Once Starship matures and Starlink’s cash flow turns positive, this valuation may not be expensive.
But in the short term, after just a 28% rebound into the IPO-price resistance zone, with shorts watching closely and lock-up selling pressure about to arrive, the probability of a pullback isn’t low.
Hang short orders in batches around $140, and set stop-loss above $150.
It’s more straightforward to profit from a pullback than to chase longs.
First, let’s look at the fundamentals. SpaceX priced its IPO on June 12 at $135— the largest ever, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion.
In the first few days after listing, it surged to over $200, then bled lower all the way, hitting $104.83 in early August.
From the low of $133 to now, it’s rebounded 28%, and intraday it even briefly touched the IPO price of $135.
The Q2 earnings report isn’t actually bad:
Revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.54 billion, nearly triple.
All three lines—Starlink, launches, and Starshield—are expanding. The company itself is fine, even strong.
So why do I see a short-term pullback?
First, the technicals.
$135 is the IPO offering price, and also the cost basis for a large number of original shareholders. Naturally, there’s selling pressure at this level. The two months of capital that got trapped finally get back to breakeven—so will they run?
Above that, $140–$150 is the dense trading zone from the early listing period, with even heavier trapped positions.
Today, as soon as the stock tapped $135 intraday, it was slammed back down—suggesting the bears are defending this area.
Second, the other side of short-squeeze dynamics.
Short interest is 219 million shares, corresponding to 640 million shares in the float, and the short ratio is indeed high.
A short squeeze could happen, but it requires sustained buying pressure to force short sellers to cover.
Current volume is 55.6 million shares, not particularly large. If a real squeeze were to happen, you’d need a catalyst. Nothing like that is showing up now.
Third, unlock/expiration of the lock-up period.
For newly listed companies, long-term shareholders typically have lock-up periods. SpaceX has been listed for less than two months.
Historically, Professor Jay Ritter studied that in the first year after IPOs, new stocks on average underperform the broader market by double-digit percentages. The selling pressure after shareholders are freed from lock-ups isn’t a joke. This isn’t a problem unique to SpaceX—it’s a hurdle that every large IPO has to get through.
Fourth, capital expenditures.
In Q2, SpaceX spent $18.37 billion—2.4 times its revenue. Starship R&D, Starlink capacity expansion, and Starbase infrastructure are all burning cash like crazy.
The company may be good, but the pace of spending means it’s sensitive to financing conditions.
Analyst price targets range from $75 to $160—disagreement is wildly off the chart. It shows SpaceX still doesn’t have a true consensus valuation.
Long term, SpaceX is worth owning. Once Starship matures and Starlink’s cash flow turns positive, this valuation may not be expensive.
But in the short term, after just a 28% rebound into the IPO-price resistance zone, with shorts watching closely and lock-up selling pressure about to arrive, the probability of a pullback isn’t low.
Hang short orders in batches around $140, and set stop-loss above $150.
It’s more straightforward to profit from a pullback than to chase longs.