📡 Nonfarm payrolls shock, ETFs keep buying $850 million—yet BTC is still consolidating around $65,000. Who’s scared?
First thing this morning: check the data—there are a few key points:
🔥 Nonfarm shock: July nonfarm -23,000 (vs. forecast +85,000), far below expectations → market worries about further rate hikes ease, and the odds of a September rate cut heat up. Theoretically bullish for risk assets.
💰 ETFs can’t stop: yesterday saw another inflow of $101.7 million; over the past 7 days, total inflows reached $854 million (the strongest weekly flow since April). BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounts for 81%. Institutions are still quietly accumulating.
📊 But what about BTC? Right now around $64,900, still below the $65K level and unable to firmly break above it. Just like we discussed yesterday: when ETFs buy a lot, sell pressure also stays there—so the price can’t get pushed up. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the “Fear” zone at 32, and retail hasn’t really joined in.
🐋 Big whales are stockpiling: the number of addresses holding 10,000+ BTC increased by 17 month-over-month, while institutional-grade players are quietly building positions. Long-term capital isn’t panicking.
One-sentence takeaway from my view: institutions are hoarding, retail is fearful, and the price is grinding. This isn’t necessarily bad—bottoms are often ground out. The real ignition point may be the CPI data on 8/12—that’s the switch for whether this round sees the comeback of buying or a full bull market restart.
My strategy remains unchanged: hold the line at $65K first. A breakout on rising volume is the real signal—don’t rush to chase. What do you think—will the 8/12 CPI be good news or bad news?👇
$BTC #比特币 #加密货币 #market analysis
First thing this morning: check the data—there are a few key points:
🔥 Nonfarm shock: July nonfarm -23,000 (vs. forecast +85,000), far below expectations → market worries about further rate hikes ease, and the odds of a September rate cut heat up. Theoretically bullish for risk assets.
💰 ETFs can’t stop: yesterday saw another inflow of $101.7 million; over the past 7 days, total inflows reached $854 million (the strongest weekly flow since April). BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounts for 81%. Institutions are still quietly accumulating.
📊 But what about BTC? Right now around $64,900, still below the $65K level and unable to firmly break above it. Just like we discussed yesterday: when ETFs buy a lot, sell pressure also stays there—so the price can’t get pushed up. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the “Fear” zone at 32, and retail hasn’t really joined in.
🐋 Big whales are stockpiling: the number of addresses holding 10,000+ BTC increased by 17 month-over-month, while institutional-grade players are quietly building positions. Long-term capital isn’t panicking.
One-sentence takeaway from my view: institutions are hoarding, retail is fearful, and the price is grinding. This isn’t necessarily bad—bottoms are often ground out. The real ignition point may be the CPI data on 8/12—that’s the switch for whether this round sees the comeback of buying or a full bull market restart.
My strategy remains unchanged: hold the line at $65K first. A breakout on rising volume is the real signal—don’t rush to chase. What do you think—will the 8/12 CPI be good news or bad news?👇
$BTC #比特币 #加密货币 #market analysis