The latest U.S. nonfarm payroll data is out—and this time it’s not just a simple miss below expectations.
July nonfarm employment:
Actual: -23,000
Forecast: +85,000
Previous value revised down from +57,000 to +20,000
Meanwhile:
Average hourly earnings (m/m): 0.1%, forecast 0.3%
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.2%, forecast 3.5%
Private nonfarm: 30,000, forecast 78,000
The only relatively stronger figure is the unemployment rate:
Actual 4.1%, better than forecast 4.2%.
But overall, this jobs report is clearly weak.
What’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the “-23,000 in a single month,” but the fact that three signals appeared at the same time:
① Headcount turned negative directly
② Last month’s data was revised down significantly again
③ Wage growth is also starting to cool noticeably
This implies the U.S. labor market is cooling further. The pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high may ease, and market expectations for rate cuts could rise again.
The market logic is straightforward:
Rate-cut expectations ↑
→ USD and U.S. Treasury yields come under pressure
→ Gold benefits
→ Liquidity expectations for risk assets like BTC improve
However, BTC may not necessarily move higher in a one-way rally immediately.
Because “deterioration in employment” is a double-edged sword: on one hand it’s good for rate cuts, and on the other it may cause the market to price in the risk of an economic recession again.
So what to watch next isn’t just this single nonfarm figure, but:
The U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. Treasury yields, and changes in market-implied probabilities for the next Federal Reserve rate cut.
For this nonfarm report, my conclusion is very simple:
Not an ordinary surprise miss, but further confirmation that employment is cooling.
Going forward, the market’s core trading logic will very likely return to two words:
Rate cuts.
#非农就业数据
July nonfarm employment:
Actual: -23,000
Forecast: +85,000
Previous value revised down from +57,000 to +20,000
Meanwhile:
Average hourly earnings (m/m): 0.1%, forecast 0.3%
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.2%, forecast 3.5%
Private nonfarm: 30,000, forecast 78,000
The only relatively stronger figure is the unemployment rate:
Actual 4.1%, better than forecast 4.2%.
But overall, this jobs report is clearly weak.
What’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the “-23,000 in a single month,” but the fact that three signals appeared at the same time:
① Headcount turned negative directly
② Last month’s data was revised down significantly again
③ Wage growth is also starting to cool noticeably
This implies the U.S. labor market is cooling further. The pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high may ease, and market expectations for rate cuts could rise again.
The market logic is straightforward:
Rate-cut expectations ↑
→ USD and U.S. Treasury yields come under pressure
→ Gold benefits
→ Liquidity expectations for risk assets like BTC improve
However, BTC may not necessarily move higher in a one-way rally immediately.
Because “deterioration in employment” is a double-edged sword: on one hand it’s good for rate cuts, and on the other it may cause the market to price in the risk of an economic recession again.
So what to watch next isn’t just this single nonfarm figure, but:
The U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. Treasury yields, and changes in market-implied probabilities for the next Federal Reserve rate cut.
For this nonfarm report, my conclusion is very simple:
Not an ordinary surprise miss, but further confirmation that employment is cooling.
Going forward, the market’s core trading logic will very likely return to two words:
Rate cuts.
#非农就业数据