Silver surges above 62.87 to set a new 7/7 high before pulling back: the Hormuz agreement + ADP 44K; the next stop in the divergence between gold and silver is nonfarm payrolls
Spot silver on August 6 briefly touched $62.87 per ounce, the highest since July 7; on the same day, spot gold surged to a high of $4,304 before falling back. Gold and silver did not move in the same direction in sync; the divergence became increasingly evident starting this week.
I. Latest market snapshot
Spot market (from the evening of August 6 to the early hours of August 7, multiple calibers):
- Spot gold at $4,229.78 (-0.40%); COMEX gold futures at $4,287.30 (-0.42%) (fx678, 00:16 on August 7);
- Spot silver: $61.33 (-1.12%), intraday high 62.90 and low 60.86 (Eastmoney 8/6 snapshot). Earlier, during the Asian session it briefly touched 62.87, setting a new high since July 7 (Zhongjin Online / wikifx);
- Spot platinum: $1,725.84 (-0.34%) (Eastmoney, same time point);
- Gold market characteristics: On Aug 6, after spiking to 4,304 in the early session, it met resistance and pulled back. In the evening it retreated toward 4,230. There was a large intraday fluctuation (Gate Plaza market recap).
On the Binance side (Aug 7 02:28 snapshot):
- PAXG: $4,237.70 (-0.45%). 24-hour range: 4,220.36–4,296.98. Approx. $16.29 million in trading volume;
- XAUT: $4,226.84 (-0.41%). Range: 4,209.10–4,284.73. Approx. $29.63 million in trading volume;
- XAUUSDT perpetual: $4,246.89 (-0.47%). Intraday high 4,308.27, low 4,229.18. 24-hour trading volume approx. $2.04 billion;
- XAGUSDT perpetual: $61.57 (-1.30%). Intraday high 63.12, low 61.00. Trading volume approx. $834 million. Funding rate +0.00000153.
The price ordering itself reflects the pricing logic: the XAUUSDT perpetual at $4,246.89 is higher than spot gold at $4,229.78 (about +0.4%). PAXG at $4,237.70 is slightly above spot. XAUT at $4,226.84 is slightly below spot. Perpetuals include an expected funding component, while spot tokens are close to spot. The differences among the three represent each product’s cost structure.
Note that XAGUSDT’s intraday high of 63.12 is already higher than spot silver’s 62.87. In the perpetual market, during the night session it printed a higher price first. A short-term spread between 7×24 commodity contracts and on-exchange spot is normal. Perpetuals settle using the mark price. Extreme spreads do not necessarily mean spot instantly matches. Before chasing price, check the deviation between the mark price and the index price. The current gold/silver ratio is about 69 (4,229.78 ÷ 61.33). Around the Aug 6 high it was about 68.5 (4,304 ÷ 62.87). Silver’s pullback relative to gold has been slightly faster, and the ratio is still repairing within its correction channel.
II. Two key drivers: the Hormuz protocol and ADP
1. Geopolitical easing: The U.S., Iran, and Oman’s temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been revived in a "near agreement" state. Trump said the agreement will be clear within 48 hours (cited by Guoxin Futures). Oil prices fell on the news, worries about inflationary pressure eased, and the risk-premium was removed;
2. Weak employment data: In the U.S., July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, far below the 70,000 expected. The prior value was revised down from 98,000 to 95,000 (Eastmoney Aug 6). After ADP came in far below expectations, market expectations for the Fed’s policy path were adjusted. Several institutions reported that expectations of further rate hikes have cooled (21 Finance / Guoxin Futures).
The two forces do not point in the same direction for gold and silver: geopolitical easing suppresses the risk premium, which is bearish for gold; weaker employment strengthens expectations for easier policy, which is bullish for precious metals overall. Silver’s industrial attributes make up a far higher proportion than gold’s. The incremental narrative about increased silver demand from photovoltaics, electronics, and AI data centers has been discussed repeatedly in recent years. That makes silver more sensitive to the combination of "inflation cooling + policy easing," giving it higher elasticity than gold. This also explains why this round silver hit new highs while gold repeatedly met resistance around 4,300. The gold/silver ratio oscillating in the 60–90 range is historically normal. The current level around 69 is in the middle-to-lower zone, meaning silver pricing already incorporates some expectations of industrial demand.
Both directional swings on Aug 6 occurred within the news window: the early-session surge to 4,304 was essentially a run-up before the ADP release, and the evening pullback was essentially the confirmation process following the Hormuz protocol news. Event-driven swings and trend continuity are two different things—this is also why washouts at high levels keep happening.
On the other side, the CEO of Bank of America still expects the Fed to cut rates three times consecutively in September, October, and December (cited by Odaily). Rate-hike expectations easing coexist with rate-cut expectations. This shows that market pricing of the policy path has not yet converged — that’s the macro backdrop for gold and silver consolidating at high levels.
III. Domestic night session matches strong performance
On Aug 6 night session (2:30 pm Beijing time close, Gelonghui): Shanghai Gold (沪金) main contract closed up 3.58% at 928 yuan/gram. Shanghai Silver (沪银) main contract closed up 3.72% at 15,260 yuan/ton. WTI/SC crude oil closed down 0.58% at 510 yuan/barrel. The domestic precious metals followed with greater upside than overseas, and the rise in silver exceeded gold—consistent with the spot-market structure of "silver strong, gold weak." The domestic night session (around 21:00 to ~02:30 the next day) overlaps with the U.S. session, which is the period when gold/silver volatility is most concentrated (SSE exchange trading time convention).
IV. Next stop: Tonight’s U.S. non-farm payrolls
This Friday (U.S. stock market time Aug 7), the U.S. will release the July non-farm employment report, which is typically revealed around 20:30 Beijing time (reported by 21 Finance / Eastmoney on Aug 6; the exact time depends on official announcements). After ADP came in at only 44,000, market expectations for non-farm have already been lowered. Note that ADP and non-farm use different samples and statistical methods; historically they have diverged multiple times. When projecting non-farm from ADP, leave some room for error. The market is more focused on the three-month average trend of non-farm.
If the actual data continues to come in below expectations, the easing trade will push gold and silver higher again. If the data unexpectedly strengthens, the pullback in gold and silver could be amplified. Around the non-farm report, gold and silver often show fake breakouts, and the characteristics of high-level washouts become more obvious. The market is also watching Trump’s remarks about key Fed personnel appointments (cited by Ant Wealth).
V. Participation methods for commodity tokens and contracts
1. Spot tokens: PAXG and XAUT directly track the gold price and are suitable for tracking gold. Based on the current snapshot, PAXG at 4,237.70 is about a 0.19% premium to spot gold at 4,229.78, while XAUT at 4,226.84 is about a 0.07% discount. After deducting trading fees, the available room is limited;
2. Perpetual contracts: XAUUSDT and XAGUSDT trade 24/7 (7×24) and settle in USDT, so you can participate even during the night session. Funding rates are settled every 8 hours (Binance convention). XAGUSDT’s current funding rate is +0.00000153, which is close to zero—indicating long and short costs are temporarily balanced. Once one side dominates, the funding rate will quickly turn positive or negative, becoming the cost of holding positions;
3. Volatility rhythm: Intraday swings in gold/silver contracts are around 1%–2%. With 20× leverage, margin fluctuations correspond to about 20%–40%. During the high-range consolidation phase, it’s not suitable to hold a one-sided position with full leverage;
4. FX factor: Onshore Shanghai Gold (沪金) and Shanghai Silver (沪银) are priced in RMB. Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate can amplify or reduce the price spread between domestic and overseas markets;
5. Participation comparison: XAGUSDT has about $834 million in 24-hour trading volume, and XAUUSDT about $2.04 billion—both far higher than PAXG/XAUT spot tokens. Leveraged capital’s participation on the commodity side has already surpassed that of spot tokens, and volatility is correspondingly higher.
VI. Risk warning
1. The Hormuz (Hormuz) protocol is still in the "near agreement" stage. Fluctuating news will directly trigger opposite-direction swings in gold and silver. Within the 48-hour window, direction may switch at any time;
2. Non-farm data is a short-lived variable. Historically, ADP and official data have often diverged. When projecting non-farm using ADP, leave some room for error;
3. During the gold/silver ratio correction, silver’s volatility is higher than gold’s. If you short the gold/silver ratio, your position must withstand one-way risk;
4. For commodity perpetual contracts, changes in open interest and funding rate are more worth tracking than price itself. A funding rate turning from 0 to positive means longs have started paying;
5. Data methodology: Spot prices come from fx678 / Eastmoney (证券之星) / Chinase (中金在线) snapshots. Binance market data is the Aug 7 02:28 snapshot. Onshore data uses Aug 6 night-session closing figures. The gold/silver ratio and spreads are calculated using snapshot prices. For the non-farm release time, rely on official announcements.
Gold and silver divergence has already been going on for a trading day. Silver hit a new high, while gold is still churning below 4,300. Before the non-farm report, will you position in gold and silver, or wait for the data to land? If you trade gold/silver contracts, where would you place your stop-loss? Let’s chat in the comments.
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The above content does not constitute investment advice