The funding rate on Binance futures has been staying above 15% annualized for the past two weeks, which indicates that long sentiment has become extremely crowded. Historically, this level of funding rate typically cannot hold for more than two or three weeks before a rapid pullback occurs to liquidate over-leveraged positions. When I look at signals like this, I never rely on the value at a single point in time; instead, I watch whether it keeps exceeding the threshold continuously. A one-time spike higher might just be driven by news catalysts, but only when it fails to drop for several days is it a real structural problem. I also think the ratio between spot and futures positions is worth monitoring. If the open interest in futures is rising much faster than the spot trading volume, then it’s basically certain that this wave of price action is being built by leverage rather than genuine new capital flowing in. In that situation, the risk-reward of chasing longs is very poor. I’d rather wait for a forced deleveraging event that flushes out the leverage before considering an entry. I’d rather miss out on a bit of profit than end up being one of the traders whose positions get liquidated by a sudden spike. #BTC $BTC #合约挑战 #资金费率