Good morning, everyone. A new week is here.
Over the past two days of the weekend, there hasn’t been much change in the overall market. BTC and ETH are still basically trading in a range, and the market is clearly in a wait-and-see mode. Everyone is waiting for this week’s most important data: the U.S. June CPI.
If the CPI comes in below market expectations, it would be favorable for rate-cut expectations, and risk assets will most likely get a boost. If the data is above expectations, it could once again weigh on market sentiment. So the CPI data on Tuesday night is most likely what truly determines the direction of the market this week.
In addition to CPI, there are two other things worth watching this week: first, Fed Chair Kevin Wosch will testify before Congress, and the market will continue to look for signals about future monetary policy. Second, the new U.S. earnings season officially kicks off, and the performance of tech stocks may also have some impact on sentiment in the crypto market.
On-chain, over the past two days, interest in the Robinhood Chain has suddenly surged. A number of funds have started flowing in, and on-chain DEX trading volume has quickly expanded, once even reaching the top spot across the network. In the short term, market funds still seem to like chasing new hotspots, but the durability of this narrative remains to be seen, so it’s not recommended to blindly chase the price higher.
On the news front, the situation between Iran and the U.S. has not eased. Their military standoff around the Strait of Hormuz is still ongoing. The U.S. continues to carry out strikes against Iran-related military targets, and Iran has also responded, with both sides taking a relatively firm stance. Meanwhile, there is still disagreement among various parties over whether the Strait of Hormuz is operating normally for navigation, which has once again pushed international oil prices higher and slightly boosted market risk-avoidance sentiment. If the situation continues to escalate, it may still bring some disturbance to global financial markets later on, so it’s important to keep monitoring.
As for liquidity, institutional sentiment remains relatively positive. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs have recorded total net inflows of about $287 million. This suggests that institutional capital has not shown any clear signs of pulling out, and overall they’re still maintaining an accumulation pace—something that is generally favorable for the market.
Now let’s look at the chart.
On the weekend, whether it’s the 4-hour chart or the daily timeframe for BTC, it still remains in a range-bound consolidation with relatively small volatility, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for the CPI to land before choosing a direction. Therefore, I personally believe that today will most likely stay in sideways range-bound movement. For BTC, the first pressure to watch is around 65,000; only with a breakout on increased volume will there be a chance to further open up upside room.
ETH has been relatively stronger recently; its price action looks healthier than BTC’s. It’s currently trying to challenge the 1,850 level. If it can effectively hold above 1,850, you can continue to watch around 1,900. If it still can’t break through after a long time, in the short term you should remain cautious about another pullback to confirm support.
In terms of SOL, it has also stayed in a mostly range-bound but strong trend recently. The key resistance to watch is around 79; whether it can break through will determine the upside room for the next phase.
Overall, before the CPI is released, I believe the market will likely remain focused on range-bound consolidation. There’s no need to rush to chase or sell aggressively; it’s better to wait patiently for the data to take effect, and then trade in line with the market’s direction.
#BTC走势分析 #Ethereum #solana #BTC☀
