#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH Master Chatting about Hot Topics:
Looking back at yesterday morning when the big cookie hit 90K, I told myself not to get excited and to wait for the U.S. stock market in the evening. If there’s genuine good news, it would definitely have momentum after the U.S. stock market opens; pulling it up during this low liquidity ghost time is mostly just false enthusiasm.
The result came back at 88K last night, which is quite normal, and it could even be said that not going back would be strange. As for the 90K threshold, saying it’s a curse wouldn’t be an exaggeration; the reason I’m too lazy to elaborate.
But the facts are right there; once the trading volume expands, the resistance level emerges, indicating that a bunch of people are waiting to sell you. Want to break through in one go? Sure, but the premise is to have even stronger positive news and real buying power; otherwise, it’s just empty talk.
In this market, to put it bluntly, it specifically treats those who chase longs (including myself yesterday). Haha, as long as you chase, if you run a bit slowly, you'll definitely be trapped within 6 hours, no exaggeration. I still believe the mid-term top for Bitcoin is the same as I said last week: 88.8K, 89.6K, 90.6K.
Returning to the market, as for yesterday, if Bitcoin can really break last week's high of 90.6K, and Ethereum stands above 3072, then it shouldn't be a big issue to pull back a bit more.
But the pressure in the range of 91.8K to 94K is immense, and there is simply no logical support for large-scale long positions right now. If you chase before a breakout, it can only mean you're truly just giving away money.
If it really were a strong market, history would have told you long ago. Once it breaks 88.8K, it will directly rush to 92K. After that, it will confirm support with a pullback, and it definitely won't be as indecisive as it is now, looking like it's constipated.
Around 91.8K is the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the middle band of the 3-day Bollinger Bands, closely touching the daily EMA52 (92.4K). For now, it seems a bit ridiculous to expect it to stabilize directly. So even if we cross 90.6K, the pressure zone from 91.8K to 92.4K remains extremely strong.
Additionally, last night's U.S. session was so absurdly small in volatility that it made me realize one thing. It might not just be you and me who are confused; many traders and institutions also don’t know how to handle this crazy position. 86.5K has been supported too many times, and going long is fearful of stepping on a void and dropping through.
Decent short entry points are still in the Asian session; by the time they wake up, the market will have already changed. Now, if it drops down, no one dares to chase shorts, leaving everyone entangled. The result of this funding entanglement is that no large funds are willing to enter the market, so even the U.S. session is the same dead water.
And I used to naively think that there were a lot of funds in the U.S. market, and regardless of the market, they would flip the table, so I often closed positions prematurely as soon as there was any structure. Now I realize that the people inside the market are not fools; they know when to push and when to cut.
More often, it’s about watching coldly and waiting for you to make a mistake. So sometimes, it's better to care less about off-market narratives and believe in the market rather than those nonsensical talks.
As for Ethereum, it still follows Bitcoin. This is an iron rule; in the current environment, I don't think Ethereum will have any independent market. But when it comes to decline, there is no bottom; if a large trader goes crazy and dumps a position, it could trigger a chain reaction.
Plus, there's a bunch of uncertainties in the U.S. macro environment; black swans can fly out at any moment. Tomorrow is the end of the year and month, and the main force is making such a fuss, which basically means they don't want either side to be comfortable. There are too many contracts open, and it has annoyed the main force.
No matter how it goes today or tomorrow, the monthly candlestick for Ethereum has basically taken shape. I don't care about any interpretations of candlestick patterns; my view for the month remains unchanged: I still don't see a bullish market. Support at 2835, 2715; resistance at 3400, 3719.
Master sees the trend:
Currently, Bitcoin has basically retraced all the space gained from yesterday's rebound; as soon as the price rises, it gets pushed down, indicating persistent selling pressure above. Intraday, you can pay attention to the range of 86.7K to 87.8K for box fluctuations.
Currently, we are still below the descending trend line, and this sideways movement in a downtrend cannot be seen as a trend reversal. Treat the market conservatively. If 86.7K is broken, the short-term target below can be initially set at 85.8K.
Above, the area around 87.8K overlaps with the 20 and 60-day moving averages and the descending trend line, making it an obvious suppression area. The RSI is around 46, and if it continues to create lower highs, the probability of a downward move will continue to increase.
The first support is 86.7K, and once it is lost, it could easily trigger a disappointing sell-off, with the price at risk of continuing to drop. The first resistance at 87.8K is where the previous high, low, trend line, and moving averages coincide, making it a strong resistance area.
If the trading volume doesn’t keep up, the probability of being pushed back down is very high. Only a valid breakout and stabilization above the second resistance at 88K can be considered a break in the short-term trend, forming a trend reversal. Until then, the overall view remains bearish.
12.30 Master Band Pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: temporarily not referenced
Short entry reference: 87800-88800 range short; target: 86700-85800
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep paying attention, not just look at the market a few times and make rash conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they take screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, looking like they 'always catch the tops and bottoms', but in reality, it's all just hindsight. A truly worth-watching blogger has trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping on trends only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!