$BTC Bitcoin has officially settled above $90,000 (+1.51% over 24h). The market is engulfed in an 'expectation of miracles', but the charts and numbers indicate a brewing storm. Let's analyze what is happening 'under the hood' of this movement.
1. Technical analysis (looking at my 4H chart):
The chart is unfolding a 'compressed spring' scenario.
Fibonacci magic: We are finely holding the 0.618 level ($89,442). This is our 'golden ratio.' As long as the price remains above — the trend stays bullish.
MA Ribbon compression: Moving averages have tangled into a tight knot. Usually, such consolidations end with a strong impulse within 24–48 hours.
Channel: We are testing the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel. Technically, this is a strong support zone.
2. Market sentiment and Smart Money:
Despite the price of $90k, the Fear and Greed Index is at 29 ('Fear'). This is a paradox!
Bullish signals: MACD showed a crossover upwards, and RSI at 65.6 confirms the strength of the momentum.
Whale actions: Top traders are increasing long positions (Long/Short ratio > 1.3). However, in the last hour, there has been an outflow of $14.19 million — large players are taking profits at current resistance.
3. My expectations and goals: 🎯
Bullish scenario: A breakout and consolidation above $91,674 (Fib 0.786) will open the way to $94,500 and then to 'Christmas Rally' targets around $100k - $120k.
Bearish risk: If we do not hold $89,000, we will face a retest of the $84,300 zone. This is a key level, and losing it will invalidate the Santa Rally scenario.
🎁 Earning opportunities (Binance ecosystem):
While we wait for the breakout from the range, don't forget about passive income:
Staking: The Babylon campaign offers up to 2.5% APR on your BTC.
Trading: Participate in the spot contest and December Earn leaderboard for rewards in USDC.
Are you trading this sideways market now or waiting for a confident breakout? 🤔
Write in the comments: are we heading to $120k without pullbacks or do we first need to 'shake off' the excess passengers? 👇
