$VELVET update — the long is done. Now I'm watching the other side.
In my last post I mentioned the supply zone at 1.65–1.85 as the next level to watch after the 4x move from demand. Price is there now. And I'm not touching a long until I see how this plays out.
$VELVET — WATCHING FOR SHORT ⏳
Waiting for: 4H rejection candle inside supply zone
Zone: 1.65 – 1.85
Planned entry on confirmation: 1.60 – 1.65
SL: Above 1.90
TP1: 1.060
TP2: 0.788
TP3: 0.550
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 WHAT I'M SEEING RIGHT NOW
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The same logic that made me buy at 0.40 is now making me cautious at 1.65.
This supply zone is where price previously topped out and reversed hard. It's not a line I drew hoping for resistance — it's the origin of the last major sell-off. Sellers who were active here before still have orders sitting in this range. When price returns, those orders get triggered again.
What I'm not doing is shorting the approach. I made that mistake clear in earlier posts — entering before confirmation is predicting, not reacting. Right now price is inside the zone but hasn't shown me a clear rejection. I need a 4H candle that closes back below the zone entry with conviction. That's my trigger.
Until that candle forms, I'm watching. Not trading.
If price pushes through 1.90 and closes above it cleanly, the supply zone is broken. In that case, the next major supply is around 2.20–2.40 and I'll reassess from there. I won't fight a breakout.
Two scenarios. One plan for each. No guessing required.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This is what Supply & Demand trading actually looks like in real time — not a signal, not a prediction. Just a zone, a trigger I'm waiting for, and two outcomes I'm already prepared for.
I'll update this post when the confirmation candle forms — or when it doesn't.
In my last post I mentioned the supply zone at 1.65–1.85 as the next level to watch after the 4x move from demand. Price is there now. And I'm not touching a long until I see how this plays out.
$VELVET — WATCHING FOR SHORT ⏳
Waiting for: 4H rejection candle inside supply zone
Zone: 1.65 – 1.85
Planned entry on confirmation: 1.60 – 1.65
SL: Above 1.90
TP1: 1.060
TP2: 0.788
TP3: 0.550
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 WHAT I'M SEEING RIGHT NOW
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The same logic that made me buy at 0.40 is now making me cautious at 1.65.
This supply zone is where price previously topped out and reversed hard. It's not a line I drew hoping for resistance — it's the origin of the last major sell-off. Sellers who were active here before still have orders sitting in this range. When price returns, those orders get triggered again.
What I'm not doing is shorting the approach. I made that mistake clear in earlier posts — entering before confirmation is predicting, not reacting. Right now price is inside the zone but hasn't shown me a clear rejection. I need a 4H candle that closes back below the zone entry with conviction. That's my trigger.
Until that candle forms, I'm watching. Not trading.
If price pushes through 1.90 and closes above it cleanly, the supply zone is broken. In that case, the next major supply is around 2.20–2.40 and I'll reassess from there. I won't fight a breakout.
Two scenarios. One plan for each. No guessing required.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This is what Supply & Demand trading actually looks like in real time — not a signal, not a prediction. Just a zone, a trigger I'm waiting for, and two outcomes I'm already prepared for.
I'll update this post when the confirmation candle forms — or when it doesn't.
