Sudden escalation!
The conflict at the Thai-Cambodian border has entered its eighth day, and the situation has developed far beyond expectations — what initially started as localized friction has now completely escalated into a full-scale war, and the intensifying situation is beyond anyone's imagination. Previously, at the request of Cambodia, President Trump of the United States intervened to mediate a ceasefire, claiming to have called the leaders of both Thailand and Cambodia, with both sides agreeing to ceasefire. However, this ceasefire declaration was immediately met with a direct “slap in the face” from Thailand. Thailand specifically issued a statement angrily criticizing Cambodia: “Do not think that by courting leaders of other countries to pressure us will force us to ceasefire; Thailand will never cease military action until our goals are achieved.” This statement undoubtedly serves as a public and firm response to Cambodia. After mediation failed, Cambodia began to “plead for sympathy,” stating: “If Thailand's military actions are not stopped, Asia may fall into a dangerous situation of ‘big countries bullying small countries’ in the future.” Clearly, Cambodia has assumed a “small nation posture” at this time, attempting to garner international sympathy.
Behind this phenomenon lies a thought-provoking clue: after the outbreak of war, Cambodia did not prioritize seeking mediation within ASEAN, but instead sought help from the United States, far away, hoping Trump could suppress Thailand. As an Asian country, it is evident that Cambodia's actions touch upon the taboos of regional diplomacy by entrusting its national security to an external power. Perhaps someone might ask: Why has Cambodia fallen into conflict this time? Aside from Trump's transoceanic call for a ceasefire and ASEAN's involvement, why are there no other countries willing to step forward to mediate? One should note that Cambodia previously had close relations with the Eastern powers; why has this influential Eastern power in the region not made a firm statement this time?
Firstly, both Thailand and Cambodia are friendly neighbors and partners to China, and China will not deal with this situation as simply as it would with the India-Pakistan conflict, but will maintain an objective and just stance. Secondly, during Hun Sen's administration, Cambodia's relationship with the Eastern powers was termed “ironclad,” even referred to as “Cambodian Iron” by outsiders — Cambodia maintained synchronization with China on many diplomatic and domestic issues, and China has provided significant assistance in economic and military fields, with Chinese cooperation marks visible throughout Cambodia. However, since Hun Sen’s son, Hun Manet, who was educated in the U.S., was elected as the new prime minister, the situation has quietly changed: although Cambodia still claims to “adhere to the friendly policy toward China,” its diplomatic direction has begun to tilt towards the West, and Hun Manet’s government has clearly adopted a posture of “betting on both sides.” The most notable example is the key cooperation project heavily advocated by China — the canal project has faced numerous setbacks, and several Chinese investment projects have also encountered obstacles.
Moreover, it is worth noting that after the Sino-U.S. tariff dispute, Cambodia was one of the first Asian countries to compromise with the United States, an act tantamount to presenting a “token of loyalty” to America. After the first outbreak of conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, Cambodia's choices once again confirmed its diplomatic inclination: it neither sought an internal ASEAN solution nor asked its neighboring “big brother” for help, but instead directly reported to Trump. Trump once forcibly pressured both sides to ceasefire, threatening to impose high tariffs on both countries otherwise. In the first confrontation, Thailand gave Trump some face, and both sides temporarily ceased fire — this led Cambodia to mistakenly believe that Trump was “all-powerful,” and even former Prime Minister Hun Sen publicly stated: “We will release more insider information about Thai officials.” This statement undoubtedly infuriated Thailand.
One should know that Hun Sen had previously used methods such as wiretapping to bring down the former Thai Prime Minister, who referred to him as “uncle,” and now threatens Thailand with “exposures,” which naturally triggered strong dissatisfaction from Thailand. Therefore, after the outbreak of this war, Thailand was evidently well-prepared and struck very hard. Seeing Thailand's offensive becoming increasingly intense, Cambodia found it difficult to resist and could only make another transoceanic call, pleading with Trump to continue pressuring Thailand for a ceasefire. But this time, Thailand directly ignored Trump's ceasefire call, leaving the American president with the door shut. As a result, a rather peculiar scene emerged in Asia: various countries quietly watched Cambodia being “beaten” by Thailand, especially as Thailand focused its firepower on the numerous casinos and online fraud parks in Cambodia's border regions, launching a fierce bombardment.
Surprisingly, there emerged voices from multiple Asian countries online cheering for Thailand — investigating the reasons, it can be seen that online fraudsters are no longer limited to targeting China but have set their sights on the entire Asia as a target for their crimes. Thailand's direct firepower coverage of Cambodia's online fraud parks is tantamount to carrying the banner of “acting for justice,” which naturally pleases many. Until this moment, Cambodia finally remembered to seek mediation from Asian countries, but whether it was ASEAN or regional powers, they only issued statements calling for both sides to cease fire and stop fighting without getting too involved in the grievances between the two countries. This time, Cambodia undoubtedly needs to learn a good lesson. One must recall the previous rampant online fraud in Myanmar:
The Myanmar military government had turned a blind eye to online fraud activities, and even participated secretly, leading Myanmar to become a “disaster zone” for online fraudsters, ultimately triggering the wrath of major powers. The subsequent developments are well-known: internal turmoil suddenly erupted in Myanmar, with local armed forces taking action under the banner of “cracking down on online fraud,” catching the Min Aung Hlaing military government off guard. Afterwards, the Myanmar military government dared not to condone online fraud any longer and began to vigorously crack down on this black industry. And those online fraudsters who could not establish themselves in Myanmar subsequently swarmed to Cambodia to “set up camp.” Tempted by immense profits, Cambodia actually turned a blind eye to and condoned these fraudsters to continue their evil deeds, forming a seamless service chain of “online fraud - gambling - money laundering.”
This black industry has seemingly become Cambodia's “little treasury,” and its actions have long triggered strong dissatisfaction from neighboring countries. On one hand, it has condoned online fraud, angering its neighbors, and on the other hand, after the outbreak of war, it attempts to cling to Trump’s support, relying on external pressure to ceasefire, entrusting national security to external countries — Cambodia has undoubtedly committed the dual heavy taboo this time. Indeed, Thailand's crackdown on Cambodia may have its own interest considerations, but just based on the banner of “cracking down on online fraud,” it has already occupied the moral high ground. If this war continues, the situation will only become increasingly unfavorable for Cambodia, and it may even deal a significant blow to the governance foundation of Hun Sen and his son. To this day, if Hun Sen and his son still fail to recognize the fundamental reasons for Cambodia's “beating” and continue to fantasize about relying on America's protection and Trump's pressure to make Thailand back down, then what awaits Cambodia may be an even greater disaster.