A thousand-point space validation prediction, but the carnival is over. The market is shifting from panic to calm, and a technical rebound could be triggered at any time. The bears suggest taking profits in batches and keeping some ammunition. Waiting for the next signal!

Tonight's non-farm payroll report will undoubtedly cause the market to drop.

This is not a prediction, but a conclusion based on established facts. The core contradiction in the current market is not the quality of the data itself, but that asset prices have excessively distorted and overdrawn the future. Regardless of the data results tonight, they will only serve as a trigger for a corrective market.

1. The market has no "good news" space left
Gold has reached an all-time high, and the U.S. stock market continues to celebrate despite high valuations—this is all supported by a fragile consensus: "The economy is about to decline, and the Federal Reserve will certainly cut interest rates quickly." This extreme one-sided bet has completely exhausted the expectations for "good news." Even if the data is weak and meets expectations, it will not provide new upward momentum; instead, it will immediately become a clear signal for bulls to take profits.

2. The power of "bad news" will exceed expectations
If the data is as weak as expected, it will immediately validate the decline in economic momentum. At that point, market sentiment will switch from "anticipating rate cuts" to "facing recession" in an instant, and risk assets will face panic selling.

If the data is unexpectedly strong, it will constitute a devastating blow. This directly proves that the core logic driving the previous rise was completely wrong, and the reasons for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates are even more justified. Extremely optimistic long positions will be swiftly liquidated, triggering a stampede-like decline.

3. All technical signals have turned red
From the extreme overbought condition in gold to the extreme greed in speculative sentiment in the U.S. stock market, all major asset technical indicators have issued clear warnings of a top. The market structure itself is like a fully drawn bowstring; regardless of the intensity of the non-farm data, it will inevitably trigger a reversal in direction.

Conclusion: The only direction is down, with the only difference being the magnitude.
Weak data will lead to a gradual decline, while strong data will lead to a collapse. The only purpose of tonight's non-farm payroll report is to determine whether the market will complete this overdue and inevitable price correction in a mild or severe manner.
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