Tonight at 3 AM, the entire market will be watching Powell's press conference.

The focus is not on whether "rate cuts will materialize" but on the combination effect of the rate cut action + speech tone.

25bp is basically locked in, but the Federal Reserve is likely to release signals of "rate cuts but with a tough tone."

That means easing actions, cautious wording, supporting the economy without providing excessive excitement for the market.

Internal divisions remain evident:

One side is worried about job declines and leans towards continued easing;

The other side fears inflation rebound and insists on maintaining rhythm.

This opposing sentiment will be reflected in the dot plot—whether to continue rate cuts this year remains uncertain, and there may be quite a few dissenting votes.

Three main lines in the crypto circle

1. Short-term: From tonight until tomorrow morning, the peak of volatility

Rate cuts do not necessarily equate to positive news.

If the speech is hawkish and suggests a slower rate cut pace, the market could change its face instantly.

High leverage requires caution; one should control positions if necessary.

2. Medium-term: Pay attention to the movements of the balance sheet

If "tapering slows down" or even "expectations for expansion of the balance sheet" appear, it means the liquidity faucet is starting to loosen.

What truly determines the medium-term market is the changes in liquidity, not a single rate cut.

3. Long-term trend: Fluctuations are part of the process, the main line still leans bullish

Short-term may experience a washout, but as long as liquidity expectations improve, there will be buyers underneath.

The structural bullish trend will not end because of a single press conference.

Ultimately, there are only two choices:

Take profits tonight and sleep soundly, or wait for emotions to trigger panic before buying low?

The decision-making power does not lie with the market, but with your rhythm and execution.

Steady means profit; chaos means loss. There is someone in the chat room @日内波段广哥

#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $PIPPIN $ZEC $WET