📈 Market in a nutshell:

ETH violently surged to $3309, with a near 6% spike in 4 hours, a large bullish candle directly breaking above the upper Bollinger Band. Short-term sentiment is overheated, all indicators are in a 'blowout' state, and the risk of a pullback has sharply increased.

🔍 Core indicator breakdown:

1. Price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band: Current price 3309.71 has significantly surpassed the upper Bollinger Band (3348.72). This is an extreme short-term overbought signal, indicating that the price is far from the mean and technically has a strong demand for a pullback.

2. Trading volume did not match the price increase: Current trading volume (4.99K) is far below the 5-day and 10-day averages (107.52K, 78.67K), typical of 'price surges with minimal volume increase'. This significant volume-price divergence indicates that the rise is mainly driven by a small amount of capital or short covering, lacking a solid buying foundation, making the upward trend unstable.

3. MACD golden cross, but momentum is questionable: DIF (62.27) and DEA (40.23) golden cross upward, MACD bars are positive (22.04). This confirms the short-term trend has strengthened, but under the background of reduced volume, the sustainability of momentum needs to be questioned.

4. All swing indicators are severely overbought:

◦ RSI(6) reached 73.31, clearly entering the overbought zone.

◦ KDJ's K, D, and J values are all above 70, also in an overbought state.

◦ Conclusion: Short-term sentiment is overly excited, a technical correction is imminent.

📍 Key positions and ideas:

• Core resistance: $3349 - $3398 (Bollinger band upper track & 24-hour high). This is the end of a strong push; directly breaking through is extremely difficult.

• Core support: $3309 (current price, also a psychological level) → $3093 (24-hour low/start point). The real strong support is near the Bollinger middle track at 3093.

• Operation idea:

◦ Current situation: Short-term looks extremely strong due to violent upward movements, but the technical aspect is severely overbought and there is a divergence in volume and price. This is a time when risks far outweigh opportunities.

◦ Holders: Consider reducing positions at the current level to lock in some profits, and move the stop-loss level below 3093. Absolutely do not add positions.

◦ Cash position/Observer: Strictly prohibited to chase high buying at this position!!! The market will definitely give a better price. Be patient and wait for the price to pull back to the 3093-3150 support area and show stabilization signals (such as reduced volume stopping the decline) before considering whether to intervene.

Ethereum #ETH #MarketAlert

（Violent upward movements are often traps; better to miss out than to make a mistake. Personal analysis for reference only, market risk is extremely high!）