💧After the approval of the Sui leveraged ETF, more and more people are beginning to re-examine this once-overlooked new public chain. The most discussed question in the market has shifted from 'Is Sui the dark horse of new public chains?' to —
"If it is given a year, how high can it rise? What will the ecosystem develop into?"
In the past month, the on-chain data of Sui, the speed of application diffusion, the enthusiasm of overseas discussions, and the capital effects brought by the ETF have led to a very clear conclusion:
Sui is entering a similar 'starting point of an upward cycle' as SOL did in 2021.
Below, I share my complete reasoning logic.
One, the underlying value of Sui is undergoing structural changes
The significance of ETFs goes far beyond price levels.
What it truly changes is:
Sui has upgraded from 'a technically strong new public chain' to 'an asset included in the research scope of global capital markets'.
This will bring several chain reactions:
Overseas institutions will start analyzing Sui
American users are starting to know about this public chain
The market's risk premium for Sui automatically rises
New users are flooding the ecosystem searching for 'what's fun?'
Therefore, in the next 12 months, Sui's growth will not rely on 'chasing hotspots', but rather on the redistribution of attention and capital.
Two, ecosystem development direction: from TPS competition → competition between applications and users
Sui's track is already very clear:
1. The entrance advantage of Web2.5 is being realized
Technologies like ZK Login allow newcomers to enter with almost no feeling.
This is most evident on Jackson.io — you can play on-chain games using Google.
2. GameFi + predictive markets become a natural advantageous track
Sui's low latency and smooth experience make it very suitable for competitive, predictive, and entertainment products.
Jackson.io, TCG games, and blockchain game studios are expanding rapidly.
3. DeFi is also undergoing a second recovery
The TVL of protocols like Cetus and Aftermath is clearly rebounding.
The ecosystem's 'playability + usability' is improving, which is extremely crucial for new public chains.
Three, why do I think Sui will continue to rise in the next year?
The reason is simple, but key:
1. Sui has shown a real 'flagship application trend'
When can a chain erupt?
It's not about TPS, nor about financing scale, but —
Is there a killer application that can keep newcomers?
At the current stage of Sui, Jackson.io plays this role:
Traffic entry point
High frequency use
Real income
Compliance narrative
Web2.5 mass experience
As long as Jackson maintains growth in 2025, it will become the 'ecosystem growth engine' for Sui.
Four, the most important question: How high can Sui rise in the next year?
The following range is not 'shot in the dark', but is derived from the speed of ecosystem expansion, ETF effects, and market capacity models.
1. Regular bull market (probability 45%)
BTC continues to rise, and the market is optimistic.
Sui reasonable range: $2.8 - $4.5
This is the most stable and easily accessible target area.
2. Strong bull market + ETF heat continues (probability 35%)
The ecosystem continues to expand, and Sui's topic in the North American market is skyrocketing.
Target range: $4.5 - $7.5
This range is very realistic and not exaggerated.
3. Extreme FOMO sentiment (probability 20%)
Meet the following conditions:
BTC hits a new high
Altseason erupts fully
A true super hotspot emerges in the Sui ecosystem (like the explosion of Jackson.io RWA)
ETFs become a continuous catalyst
In this case:
The highest potential impact for Sui: $9 - $12
This is an extreme top, not a baseline prediction.
Five, final summary
How high can Sui reach in 2026?
Reasonable expectation: $3 - $5
Strong cycle: $6 - $8
Extreme top: $10 - $12
The key variable for Sui's ecosystem growth is:
Who can become the 'first application' of this ecosystem?
I think it is most likely to be Jackson.io.
