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🔔 **THE FED'S FINAL SHOWDOWN: Expect a "HAWKISH CUT" Today** 🦅📉 The **Federal Reserve** concludes its December 9-10 FOMC meeting today, and the market is braced for extreme volatility driven by a single theme: the **"Hawkish Cut."** ### ⏰ **Timeline: Today, December 10th (ET)** * **2:00 PM:** FOMC Statement & Crucial **"Dot Plot"** released. * **2:30 PM:** Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference. ### 💰 **The Anticipated Move** Markets are nearly certain (87-90% probability) the Fed will deliver a: * **25 Basis Point Rate Cut** (Third straight cut this year). * **New Target:** $\mathbf{3.50\%}$ to $\mathbf{3.75\%}$. ### 🚨 **Why the "Hawkish Cut" Matters** The cut is priced in, but the **GUIDANCE** is not. A "hawkish cut" means the Fed lowers rates but uses restrictive language to signal they are **not committed to further easing** in 2026. This would disappoint markets betting on aggressive cuts and could be **bearish for risk assets.** **Key Watchpoints for Volatility:** 1. **The Dot Plot:** Look at the median interest rate projection for **2026**. If it remains cautious (like the September projection of only one cut), it will be seen as a hawkish pushback against the market's high expectations. 2. **Powell's Tone:** Will he emphasize the **softening labor market** (dovish) or focus on **inflation remaining above 2%** and the uncertainty from delayed economic data (hawkish)? 3. **Balance Sheet Clues (QE?):** Following the end of QT, any mention of T-bill purchases to replenish reserves could signal a shift towards a looser liquidity environment. **The Bottom Line:** Today’s market reaction will be all about Powell's words, not the expected rate cut itself. Brace for potential downside if the Fed signals a pause after this move. *What's your trade: Long Volatility (VIX) or Long Risk (BTC/Stocks) after the announcement?* #Fed #FOMC #HawkishCut #JeromePowell #MacroTrading

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BRAKING NEWS 💥🚨🔥 Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in a press conference on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time, after the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the release of its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. FOMC Meeting Details The final FOMC meeting of 2025 is a two-day meeting that begins on Tuesday, December 9, and concludes on Wednesday, December 10. This meeting is one of the "dot-plot" meetings that includes the release of a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in addition to the standard policy statement. Market Expectations Rate Cut Likely: Financial markets widely anticipate a third consecutive interest rate cut this year. Traders assign a high probability (around 87% as of December 5) to the FOMC trimming the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Data Dependence: The decision is data-dependent, and the Fed is monitoring factors such as elevated inflation and a slowdown in job growth. There might be some dissents among committee members regarding the decision. Future Outlook: Markets will be closely watching Powell's press conference for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates and the economic outlook for 2026. Selected Interest Rates (as of December 4, 2025) The current effective Federal funds rate is 3.89%.

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💥DOLLAR CRACK EXPOSED: Fed’s $13.5B Liquidity Bomb & The Bitcoin Connection ₿

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🔥 🚨**FED RATE CUT ALERT: Will the Third Time Be the Charm?** 📉 The Federal Reserve's December 9-10 FOMC meeting is set up for a major policy showdown! Markets are practically *guaranteeing* a rate cut, but a deep internal split at the Fed could make things volatil ### ✂️ **The Market Expectation: A 25 BPS Cut** Financial markets are pricing in a huge **87% chance** of a quarter-point (25 basis points) cut. * This would move the Federal Funds Rate target range down to **3.50% to 3.75%**. * This would be the **third consecutive cut** after moves in September and October, signaling a major shift away from prior tightening cycles. (Current Effective Rate: $\approx 3.89\%$). --- ### 🥊 **The Division: Doves vs. Hawks** Fed policymakers are fighting over whether to prioritize the job market or the 2% inflation target. **🕊️ DOVISH Stance (Pro-Cut):** * **Goal:** Prevent excessive unemployment and boost job growth. * **Driving Data:** Members like **John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly** are emphasizing recent data showing a **slowdown in the labor market** and **easing consumer spending.** They advocate for lower borrowing costs to prevent a sharp economic downturn. **🦅 HAWKISH Stance (Against More Cuts):** * **Goal:** Control sticky inflation (still above the 2% target). * **Driving Data:** Officials like **Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid** are concerned that inflation, while moderating, is still too high. They worry that aggressive cuts could **re-ignite price pressures** and undermine credibility. ### 🔍 **Why You Should Care About the "Dot Plot"** The rate decision is just half the battle. Market participants will intensely scrutinize the new economic projections, known as the **"dot plot."** * This crucial report will reveal where officials expect interest rates to be in **2026** and beyond. **What's your bet?** Will the Fed deliver the cut the market expects, or will the inflation hawks force a pause?

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