Despite the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet by 27%, the S&P 500 index has still risen by 82% over the past three years, and the market currently widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut this week with a probability as high as 86%. Analysts point out that this wave of rising market driven by fiscal deficits and corporate buybacks challenges traditional liquidity theories and masks potential economic pressures. Criticism of the effectiveness of Federal Reserve policies is growing louder, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet even calling it a 'universal basic income for PhD economists', while potential leadership changes further exacerbate policy uncertainty.