As an old player who has been navigating the circle for 6 years, today I was completely shocked by my sister's position records — the industry-leading major coin she heavily invested in at the beginning of the year has been tossed around for almost a whole year, and its returns are still less than the interest of stable investments!
I flipped through her almost static position curve and couldn't help but sigh: "What do you mean by trading coins? This is clearly just a long-term 'custodial position' for the funds!" Back then, in the circle, this major coin was promoted as a 'digital hard currency,' claiming to resist volatility and preserve value. Yet this year, its sideways trend is so flat that it can't even outperform the steady growth of stable investments next door, simply turning 'expectation management' into 'expectation crash.'
In fact, it’s not just her; many old friends have the same feeling this year: at the beginning of the year, we hoped the halving would push the market up, but what we got was a long period of sideways fluctuation; we thought holding leading large coins would guarantee profits, but unexpectedly, funds have been stagnant for half a year, not even outpacing inflation. In contrast, other markets, whether it’s steadily rising overseas equity assets or resilient physical assets, even some sectors of A-shares that are criticized as 'unreliable,' have performed much better than this.
Here, I want to share some practical insights, which I have always emphasized:
No asset can win forever! Even the leading ones in the circle go through phases of cyclical adjustment. Never treat 'long-term optimism' as a reason for 'short-term must rise';
Expectations are a double-edged sword! The halving expectations at the beginning of the year were overly hyped, and the market digested the good news in advance. When the actual event occurred, it was easy to see a situation of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact';
Never heavily bet on asset allocation! No matter how optimistic you are about a particular variety, you must leave enough position for stable assets. Otherwise, when encountering this year’s market situation, you can only watch funds 'tread water.'
To be honest, I completely understand everyone’s frustration — after all, who buys coins not to pursue higher returns? But we can’t double standard: when complaining about the volatility of small coins, we also have to admit that leading large coins also have moments of 'losing the chain.' The market is inherently fluctuating, there are no eternal gods, only eternal cycles.
Instead of complaining that the market is weak, it’s better to take advantage of the adjustment period to improve yourself: study project logic more, listen less to the brainless hype in the circle; allocate positions reasonably, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
In the future, I will continue to share market interpretations, position allocation tips, and those practical ideas that can truly outperform the market. For those who think what I said is reasonable, please like + follow! How has your holding performance been this year? Are you winning by lying down or are you stuck? Let’s have an open discussion in the comments section!
