โ๐ด๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ป๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐จ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ต๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐.โ
It is highly unlikely that the market "topped on Euphoria" in 2025 precisely because of the tight monetary policy.
๐ต๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ก๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐๐ฌ "๐๐๐ฌ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ฒ"
Market "Euphoria" (the blow-off top phase where everyone is buying irrationally) typically requires a flood of liquidity.
โซ2020-2021: We had zero interest rates and massive QE (Quantitative Easing). Result: Euphoria.
โซ2025: we have been under "Tight" policy. The Fed has been draining liquidity via Quantitative Tightening (QT) (balance sheet runoff). It is very difficult to generate a mania when the central bank is actively pulling money out of the system.
๐ต๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฅ (๐๐ก๐ "๐๐๐ฉ๐จ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ" ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฉ)
The chart explicitly compares December 2025 to July 2019.
โซIn 2019: The Fed had been tightening for years. The market topped out, but not because of a mania, it topped because the system simply ran out of cash (liquidity dried up). This caused the "Repo Crisis" in Sept 2019, forcing the Fed to suddenly reverse course and start printing money again.
โซIn 2025: We are seeing the exact same setup. The "Apathy Top" implies the market ran out of buyers due to exhaustion and lack of fresh capital (tightness), not because of a speculative bubble bursting.
๐ต๐ง๐ต๐ฒ "๐ฃ๐ถ๐๐ผ๐" ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ก๐ผ๐ (๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ)
The Federal Reserve officially ended its balance sheet runoff (QT) on December 1, 2025.
This removes the "tightness" that has suppressed the market.
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ : The chart is bullish. It argues that the decline was just a "liquidity drought" (Apathy), and now that the Fed is forced to stop draining money (just like they did in 2019), the real euphoric run is likely just beginning as liquidity returns.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ:
"๐๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ฉ = ๐๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ต๐บ."
Real "Euphoria" is impossible when the Fed is actively draining money (Tight Policy).
The market didn't crash because it was a bubble; it stalled because it ran out of liquidity (Apathy).
As of December 1, 2025, the Fed stopped draining cash. The "tight" era is over.
My chart suggests the bull run is not over; we are just in a multi-month correction. If Bitcoin had dropped to $40,000 (a 65% drop), then I could call it a bear market. For now, Iโm keeping my cash in stablecoins and waiting for liquidity to return to the system.
#bitcoin #crypto #economics #macroeconomics
