Recently, a rare situation has emerged in the market— the USDT to RMB exchange rate has directly broken 7, and many people in the industry are discussing this matter. It is worth noting that in the past, this price usually fluctuated around 7.2, and this time it suddenly dropped to around 6.95, which is indeed surprising.
Behind this are mainly two factors at play. On one hand, the market has heard signals that the Federal Reserve may adjust its monetary policy, with December rate cut expectations being speculated to nearly 90%, putting pressure on the dollar's performance. On the other hand, the recent regulatory crackdown on the illegal cross-border flow of funds using stablecoins has significantly increased, leading some holders to choose to sell off for safety, causing a short-term imbalance in supply and demand.
Interestingly, although the price of U is falling, mainstream cryptocurrencies like $ETH are actually rising quite sharply, with daily increases reaching 10%. This is not difficult to understand—when expectations of dollar depreciation strengthen, funds often seek alternative assets. The cryptocurrency market is more likely to absorb some of the risk-averse or speculative funds during such times. Historically, before each round of market rallies, the prices of stablecoins tend to go through a period of adjustment; whether this time will be a similar situation still needs to be observed in the subsequent trends.
Now, withdrawing funds does require caution. It has been reported that some users have had their receiving accounts flagged by risk control systems due to frequent transactions or unclear sources of funds from counterparties. If you need to exchange currency, it is recommended to operate in small amounts and batches, and try to find reliable long-term cooperation channels. Don’t just focus on exchanging when the exchange rate is high; account security is more important. High-frequency and large-amount transfers are particularly likely to trigger bank risk control, and this point must be noted.
Theoretically, there is indeed an arbitrage space—USDT is currently priced at 6.95, and the dollar exchange rate is 7.05, leaving a price difference to profit from. However, the actual operational risk is very high; in case an account gets frozen, it would not be worth the loss. The market is currently quite polarized: new entrants are worried about whether stablecoins will encounter problems, while some old players feel that this is an opportunity for positioning. What do you think about this breaking of 7? Is it a short-term fluctuation or a trend signal? $BTC #USDT
