There are three very critical time points in December, and the market in the next three weeks will basically fluctuate around these three events. Let me summarize them briefly for you:

First: December 11, Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Originally, the market expected no interest rate cuts in December, but now the probability of a rate cut has been driven up to around 87%.

Second: December 19, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

The market previously believed that the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December, but on Monday, the governor suddenly made a suggestive statement, leading everyone to generally believe that there is a high probability of a rate hike on the 19th.

Third: December 26, Bitcoin's year-end "huge amount" options expiration.

This is the most critical day in the entire options market: it is both the Q4 quarter-end expiration and the last expiration of the year, with a notional value as high as 23 billion, making it very significant.

The first two are major news items; originally, the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike would already be enough to impact the market, but now the market expectations on both sides have deviated simultaneously, so the uncertainty brought about here will be even stronger.

The third one is related to the options structure.

From the current data, the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options is at 100,000; the maximum PUT peak is at 84, indicating that it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to break through and stabilize above 100,000 in December; and around 84, institutions have made bearish protections. A few days ago, after BTC dropped below 84, instead of consolidating, it quickly pulled back, which is likely related to this point.