Reuters Survey: Over 80% of Economists Bet on Rate Cut in December, But Significant Disagreement Among Federal Reserve Officials
According to the latest economist poll released by Reuters on December 4, there is an overwhelming consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December.
Among the 108 economists surveyed, as many as 82% (89 economists) expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at this month's monetary policy meeting, a figure that is largely consistent with the results from November's survey and closely aligns with the 87% probability of a rate cut reflected in the current interest rate futures market.
However, this strong market consensus starkly contrasts with the growing divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve policymakers. The survey pointed out that there is a dispute among Fed officials about whether further easing of the global economy is needed in 2026.
This internal uncertainty also directly reflects that economists have uncertainties regarding their interest rate forecasts for 2026.
Although Goldman Sachs research predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two more rate cuts in 2026, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3.00%-3.25% by the end of next year, there has been no consensus on the specific interest rate path for the quarters ahead.
In summary, the results of this survey clearly reflect that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December and views it as a predetermined action to respond to the cooling labor market;
However, there is a lack of clear consensus on the longer-term direction of interest rates, both within the Federal Reserve and among economists.
This also suggests that the policy path for 2026 will be filled with uncertainty and may become a new factor that triggers market volatility.