Yesterday I was bullish on SOL, BTC, BNB. All three dropped today. Here's what happened.
BTC at $93K, SOL $140, BNB $900 — they didn't fall because the thesis was wrong. Initial jobless claims hit 191K this morning, lowest since Sept 2022. That flipped Fed cut odds from 40% to 87% in 48 hours. Market wanted the cut locked at 100%. When it stayed at 87%, algos sold. Volume died into Asia.
But I called ADA correctly yesterday. Said it'd drop on the jobless claims number — it's at $0.44 now, down 8% intraday. That transmission worked exactly like I expected: tight labor data → delayed rate cut bets → alts bleed first.
Here's what shifted today. Whale ratio on BTC jumped back to 0.53 after easing from 0.68 last week. They're still offloading to exchanges, no accumulation. ETH funding stayed near neutral but spot outflows accelerated — ETH/BTC ratio at its weakest in months. SOL got hit harder because retail gave up waiting for the $150 breakout. BNB dropped through $900 support, now stuck below the $910 liquidation cluster.
Fed meets Dec 9-10. Powell's got a divided committee — Trump's guy wants 50bp, hawks want a hold, moderates want 25bp. Market priced 87% but that's soft. If they skip, BTC retests $86K. If they cut but signal "no more in Jan," same result.
Flow structure looks constructive on ETH around $3,170. Fusaka upgrade Dec 3rd didn't move it yet but buyers quietly absorbed the $3,000 test. Spot still weak but perps funding flipped from negative to flat — short squeeze setup if macro cooperates.
Risk: if BTC breaks $90K support, everything follows.