In the years I've spent in the cryptocurrency market, I've discovered a disturbing truth: almost all the clever people seeking 'shortcuts' ultimately become fuel, while those who truly navigate through bull and bear markets are often the seemingly clumsy steadfast ones. Yesterday, a trader who entered at the peak in 2021 and is still making stable profits said something that left me pondering for a long time: 'In this market, the way is the principle. Those who act according to the principle are their own gods.'
The 'principle' he speaks of is not some mysterious code, but the simplest and driest truths in the market. The numbers in your account are the sum of your decisions; your trading system is the total of every fragment of your understanding of the market. No hundredfold returns come from a flash of luck.
Market law: All shortcuts come with hidden costs.
In the crypto world, we have seen too many temptations of 'shortcuts.' Are high-leverage contracts shortcuts? Yes, they can amplify your profits in just a few minutes, but they also significantly increase your chances of being liquidated in an instant.
I once compiled a brutal statistic: In a one-sided market, traders using more than 20x leverage have over 85% who ultimately fail to leave with profits. Those paths that seem the fastest often lead directly to a cliff.
What is the so-called law? It is that weight is gained bite by bite, knowledge is learned bit by bit, and tall buildings are built brick by brick. In trading, the law is:
The law of capital flow: Money never sleeps, but it always flows from the impatient to the patient. In every round of the altcoin season, those 'fools' who set up early and endure months or even a year of fluctuations ultimately end up with the most substantial profits.
The law of emotional cycles: FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) always alternate. When everyone is greedy, you quietly reduce your position; when everyone is desperate, you are silently accumulating chips. This is swimming in the law.
The probability distribution law of candlestick patterns: The success rate of daily level breakthroughs is much higher than that of 5-minute level breakthroughs. The more you chase short-term fluctuations, the more your decisions become like flipping a coin, and over the long term, the win rate will inevitably approach 50%, while transaction fees and slippage will steadily eat away at you.
My view: Your future is the sum of every trading habit you have in this moment.
I often say that your future account net worth is the 'compound interest' of all your trading habits today. This statement is not a platitude, it is mathematics.
Today, due to a moment of impulse, you ignored the stop-loss rule and chased a low-quality project, this is 'one bite.'
Tomorrow, out of fear of missing out, you place all your bets on an unverified rumor, this is another 'bite.'
The day after tomorrow, you exit too early when in profit and stubbornly hold on when in loss, this is yet another 'bite.'
These 'bites' of decisions ultimately shape your posture of being 'stuck' or 'liquidated.' In contrast, what are those 'fools' doing?
They use the simplest strategy: executing a dollar-cost averaging plan when the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is in the 'Extreme Fear' zone; executing partial profit-taking when the index enters the 'Extreme Greed' zone. They do not strive to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest, but only aim to be 'vaguely correct' each time. This strategy has no technical content and no exciting storytelling, but it adheres to the long-term compound interest law of capital markets.
The essence of the law is to acknowledge and utilize probability. Successful traders are essentially believers in probability. They establish a trading system with a positive expected value and then execute it repeatedly like robots, enduring the boredom and drawdowns in the process, waiting for time to turn the probabilistic advantage into wealth.
How to become a 'god' who acts according to the law: Three key 'bricks.'
To become your own 'god' in the market, you need to stack the three most critical 'bricks':
The first brick: A systematic decision-making process, not impulsive emotional reactions. Before clicking the 'confirm' button, ask yourself three questions: Does this decision conform to my system rules? Is my risk exposure within the plan? Can I handle the worst-case scenario? These three questions can help you avoid 80% of foolish operations.
The second brick: The art of position management is always greater than the technique of timing. No one can always see the right direction. The core skill of top traders is how to survive through position management when they are wrong and how to let profits run when they are right. Never use a position that you cannot afford to lose to chase after the profits you imagine.
The third brick: The habit of continuous learning establishes cognitive compound interest. The market's laws are also evolving. From ICOs, DeFi Summer to inscriptions and staking, each new narrative tests old cognition. Spending an hour every day researching on-chain data, reading quality research reports, and reviewing trading records, this accumulation of little bits of knowledge will, at a key moment, allow you to recognize opportunities that others cannot.
In the face of the law, everyone is equal. It doesn’t care about your identity, your capital, or even your IQ. It only responds to whether your actions resonate with it.
Those 'smart people' who fantasize about getting rich overnight will ultimately find that they are merely building a wealth ladder for those 'fools' who stick to the rules. The market is like a strict accountant; every moment you slack off on discipline, learning, and patience will turn into a high wall in the future, blocking you from financial freedom.
As an experienced trader who has gone through several bull and bear markets said: 'The god of this market is not Satoshi Nakamoto, nor is it the CEO of a certain exchange. The god is the future you who persists in dollar-cost averaging during deep bears and has the courage to exit during a raging bull market.'
From now on, examine every 'moment' of yours, because your future is built piece by piece from this. If this reflection resonates with you, consider following me. I will continue to share how to be a clear-headed 'fool' who acts according to the law in a market full of twists and turns. #加密市场观察 If you are caught in confusion about how to operate, follow me, and I will use practical experience to help you avoid pitfalls and steadily preserve your capital while slowly earning profits!