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1. Macroeconomic Environment & Risk Sentiment Overview
1.1 Interest Rate Curve and Yield & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
The US 10Y Treasury yield is about 4.09%–4.10% (slightly up recently). FRED+1
The US 2Y Treasury yield is about 3.49%, and the 2Y–10Y yield spread remains inverted at approximately -60bp (the short end is higher than the relatively lower ten-year end); the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to gradually lower interest rates within the year is strengthening. FRED+1
1.2 Inflation & Employment / Growth
This week's macro data is relatively weak, with signs of slowing employment growth and persistent decline in inflation. The market's probability of the Federal Reserve starting a 'rate-cutting path' in the December monetary policy meeting continues to rise (see economic data and market interpretation below). TradingView+1