🔥Raoul Pal's Heavy Prediction in Dubai: The Crypto Market Will Welcome a "Trillion Dollar Liquidity Tsunami" in 2026 $ETH
1️⃣ Cycle Cognition Revolution
- Refuting the "Four-Year Halving Cycle Theory": Bitcoin's trend is highly correlated with the global M2 money supply curve, and the new high in 2024 is only a prelude to liquidity
- Historical Similarity: The current retracement depth (-35%) overlaps significantly with the mid-cycle washout in 2016 (-38%) and 2020 (-33%) bull markets
- Key Indicator: If the Federal Reserve's balance sheet returns above $8.5 trillion in Q1 2025, it will trigger the liquidity floodgates to open
2️⃣ Altcoin Season Launch Key
- Dual Verification Mechanism: The US ISM Manufacturing Index breaks above the 50 expansion-contraction line + Total stablecoin supply exceeds $200 billion
- Fund Migration Route: BTC market cap share needs to drop below 40% (currently 43.7%), ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking above 0.06 will be a clear signal
- Dark Horse Track Forecast: Depin (number of devices > 50 million), AI Agents (daily interactions > 100 million), RWA (TVL exceeds $80 billion)
3️⃣ Retail Survival Handbook
- Core Configuration: BTC (50%) + ETH (30%) + SOL (15%) + Cash (5%), monthly investment error rate < 3%
- Data Mining: Lock in on-chain real yield protocols (e.g., EigenLayer LST staking APR > 5%, daily new staking > 20,000 ETH)
- Death Taboo: Leverage > 2x, number of held tokens > 8, weekly trading frequency > 5 times
⚠️ Three Major Cognitive Traps
- AI Threat Argument Refuted: AI companies hold over $30 billion in crypto assets (MicroStrategy accounts for 47%), the on-chain AI agent wallet increases by 12% monthly
- Token Inflation Illusion: The potential allocation size of global pension funds reaches $23 trillion, with the annual release of new tokens accounting for only 4.7% of the existing market value
- Regulatory Pessimism Misconception: The G20 countries' crypto legislation completion rate has reached 68%, and compliant channel funding has surged by 340% year-on-year
🎯 2026 Countdown Combat Map
- Phase One (2024Q4-2025Q2):
✅ Increase holdings in leading L1s during dips (a drawdown of over 20% triggers grid buying)
✅ Monitor CME Bitcoin futures holdings surpassing $12 billion
- Phase Two (2025Q3-2026Q1):
🔥 Allocate to dark horse altcoins (FDV < 5 billion + protocol revenue growth > 200%)
🔥 Hedging Tools: Buy BTC $100,000 call options + short DXY index
- Nuclear Explosion Red Line: If global M2 year-on-year growth rate falls below 3% or BTC weekly price drops below $58,000, defensive asset reallocation starts #币安区块链周 , #ETH走势分析
