Non-farm payrolls explode! Employment data has 'plummeted sharply', and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month is almost certain!
Brothers, this time the non-farm data is truly explosive, and it's the kind that 'explodes downwards'.
In November, the number of new jobs in the United States not only did not grow,
but instead flipped from last month's +42,000
to –32,000 people directly.
This is not a 'slowdown', this is an emergency brake.
And it's the kind that hits hard.
The unexpected negative growth in private sector employment indicates one very clear thing:
The U.S. labor market is rapidly deteriorating.
Why is this data so critical?
Because the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates is based on the stability of the job market,
and that Americans are still working.
Now, the sharp decline in employment means:
The economy really can't hold on any longer.
This also explains why the market immediately erupted.
CME data shows that the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December shot up to——
88.8%!
It's already close to the rhythm of 'default rate cut'.
What does this mean for the market?
1. Increased expectations for a weaker dollar
2. Liquidity in risk assets (stocks, crypto) enhances
3. Rate cut = monetary environment shifts to loosen
This data is more impactful than CPI, better than GDP, and more lethal than PCE.
But you must remember two points:
First, weak non-farm → strong expectations for rate cuts, but also represents accelerating economic downward pressure.
Second, a rate cut is beneficial, but the real big market trend still requires the Federal Reserve to officially confirm.
The most critical play next is——
The Federal Reserve meeting next week.
If Powell eases up, it will be a trend market;
If he remains stubborn, there may be an 'expectation disappointment → technical adjustment'.
In summary:
Non-farm has already opened the door, a rate cut only requires a nod from the Federal Reserve.
Whether the market will surge or oscillate depends on next week. $BTC
