Goldman's latest report is quite information-heavy.

First, the consensus: a rate cut in December is basically a foregone conclusion. But the real key to the report is its outlook for next year—Goldman believes that due to the potential acceleration of economic growth, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will clearly slow down in the first half of the year (for example, no action in January, followed by moves in March and June).

However, there is a noteworthy signal hidden within: the employment data for American college students is showing a clear weakening. The unemployment rate for graduates over the age of 25 has risen by about 50% compared to the end of 2022, and the situation is even more pronounced for younger graduates. Goldman suggests that this might be a real impact on the job market due to the replacement by technologies such as AI. If this trend continues, it could not only affect overall consumption but could also force the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively than expected.

For the market, there are two narratives pulling in different directions:

· On one side is the narrative of "the economy is doing well, slowly cut rates,"

· On the other side is the narrative of "structural employment issues emerging, forcing greater easing."

If the latter gradually becomes the main storyline, the liquidity environment may be more accommodative than what the current market expects.

Points worth observing:

1. Short-term sentiment may be suppressed by expectations of "slowing rate cuts," especially if subsequent economic data turns out to be stronger.

2. However, the medium-term factor that truly impacts the market may be "why cut rates"—if it is due to hidden structural issues necessitating easing, it may not be a bad thing for assets like cryptocurrencies.

3. It is recommended not to focus solely on the number of rate cuts, but to pay attention to the underlying economic data, especially the changes in employment details.

In summary, the main storyline for the macro environment next year may not be inflation, but employment.

(Source: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Outlook Report, for reference only, not constituting investment advice) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH