"Bro, my position is about to explode!" "What should we do? Is it going to zero?" Just arrived at the studio this morning, and the backend messages were like a boiling pot. Opening the market chart, I saw the big green bar of mainstream cryptocurrencies drop more directly than the lightning rod in my neighborhood, hitting the 86000 mark, and the wails in the fan group almost drained my phone's battery.
As I leisurely refilled my thermos with hot water, the buns on the table were still warm, half-eaten—it's not that I'm careless; it's that I already made it clear in the internal community last night: "The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has soared to 76%, and a trillion-level carry trade is waiting to run away. At this point, don't think about chasing the rise; holding onto cash is better than anything else."
Honestly, every time the market crashes, I see two types of people: one type is the 'panic group' crying and lamenting with their phones, and the other type is the 'scooping up deals' group, who has positioned themselves in advance and are calmly fishing. Today, I will break down my practical operations and core logic, so that next time we encounter such a 'money-giving market,' we can all be the latter.
Three-step operation method: from hedging to profit, each step is methodical.
Many people get flustered when they see market fluctuations; either they blindly buy the dip or sell at a loss, which indicates they haven’t established their own operating system. This time, my core operation with fans is 'no gambling, no greed, no panic,' which can be broken down into three steps:
Step one: hedge in advance, keep the principal in hand.
Since last week, I noticed the direction of the Bank of Japan’s policy was off; the signals for carry trade closures were becoming increasingly clear. So last night, while the market was still relatively stable, I instructed my fans to clear most of their positions, leaving only a small amount of 'observation funds'—I myself only kept 500 units of base assets, purely for 'watching the market.'
At that time, a fan asked me, 'What if there’s a sudden surge tonight, won't we miss out?' I replied directly, 'In this market, survival is always the top priority. Missing out means earning less once, but being trapped may mean never having the chance to earn again.' As it turns out, this decision helped us avoid the crash impact this morning.
Step two: preset levels, let the market 'deliver to your door.'
A crash is not the end, but a time to filter opportunities. This morning, when the market just touched 86000, I led my fans to set three levels for staggered buy orders: 85000, 84000, 83000, with each level only placing 100 units of funds, and I clearly required 'only spot trading, absolutely no leverage.'
Here’s the key point: why preset levels instead of chasing the market? Because during a crash, prices fluctuate very quickly; by the time you react and decide to buy, it may have already risen. Plus, when emotions run high, it’s easy to buy at the 'halfway up the mountain.' Preset levels are like setting a 'trap' for the market; when the price hits, it automatically executes, allowing you to accurately buy the dip without needing to watch the market, so you can sleep soundly without worry.
Step three: take profit when you can; securing the gains is true profit.
Around 10 AM, the 85000 level was successfully executed. In the afternoon, the market began to rebound, and when it touched 88000, I immediately instructed everyone to sell half of the positions bought in the morning—this step is crucial; regardless of whether it goes up or down later, we first get back the principal, and even if the remaining position drops back, we won’t lose the principal.
I sold half of my position when it was at 87500, instantly recovering the principal, and set a 3% trailing stop for the remaining position. By evening, 500 units of principal had turned into 670 units, yielding a 34% profit in a day. Meanwhile, I know many friends who leveraged are still staring at the screen waiting to break even.
Core logic: why is a rate hike not a 'negative bomb'?
Many people get scared out of their wits when they hear 'rate hike,' thinking the market is doomed. But in my view, a rate hike is merely a short-term 'emotional tsunami,' not a long-term 'market apocalypse.'
Looking back at Japan's first rate hike in 2024, mainstream cryptocurrencies also dropped significantly, but just three months later, they hit new highs. What’s the core reason? The crash brought by carry trades closing is essentially 'short-term capital withdrawal,' not 'asset value disappearance.' Once this wave of panic selling ends, those who originally had a positive outlook on the market will still come back.
So my operational logic has never been about 'predicting tops and bottoms,' but rather 'responding to the market': do not be greedy when it goes up, take profit; do not panic when it goes down, stagger your positioning. It’s like hunting; first, set up an ambush and wait for the prey to come to you, rather than chasing after it.
