$ETH ，$BNB ，$BTC
🔥 Super dovish!!! QT ends + new chair nomination is imminent, a wave of liquidity is about to sweep the market!!!
💎 Policy shift: Quantitative Tightening (QT) officially comes to an end
The Federal Reserve will cease balance sheet reduction starting December 1, ending a years-long cycle of liquidity contraction. Faced with massive government debt pressures and potential market liquidity risks, the Fed has injected funds into the market through repurchase operations, shifting its policy stance from 'tightening' to 'neutral/easing'.
💎 Major personnel signal: Super dovish Kevin Hassett all but locked in for nomination
Former White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has become the leading candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (with a probability exceeding 86%). He has publicly advocated for 'immediate rate cuts', believing that the reasonable interest rate should drop to 2%-2.5%, and may flexibly approach the inflation target to promote economic growth. If confirmed, the Fed's dovish stance will be unprecedentedly strengthened.
💎 Market immediate reaction: Rate cut expectations soar, risk assets celebrate
✅ Interest rate forecast: The market's bets on a rate cut in December have surged to nearly 90%;
✅ Asset volatility: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rapidly fallen below 4%, putting pressure on the dollar; expectations for liquidity easing have directly driven a rebound in risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies (such as BTC, ETH, DOGE), enhancing long-term bullish logic.
⚠️ Core trading logic and risk warnings
🚨 Layout direction: The liquidity easing cycle has begun, with a focus on growth assets sensitive to interest rates, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies (especially major coins and high-Beta altcoins), which can be accumulated in batches during pullbacks.
🚨 Major concerns: If the market believes that the Fed's independence is compromised by political agendas, it may trigger long-term worries about dollar credibility and U.S. Treasury stability, leading to severe turmoil in the bond market.
✍️ Summary: QT ends + dovish chair is coming, 'double dovish' signals the official start of the liquidity easing era. The market has entered a phase of expectation frenzy, but caution is needed against structural risks brought about by excessive politicization of policy.
