《Don't Be Paralyzed by the 'Bounce' - This Wave of Increase is Anticipation, Not Easing》
The end of balance sheet reduction has indeed improved risk appetite, but this round of rebound belongs to 'anticipated price realization', not a liquidity restart.
$BTC returning to around $93,000, and breaking above $3,050 for $ETH , is more about the market betting in advance on the Fed potentially entering an easing cycle in the future. However, the overnight repo is merely an emergency liquidity injection for the bank system's shortage, fundamentally lacking an expansion effect, and cannot change the reality that funds are still stuck in safe-haven assets.
What truly determines the pricing power of risk assets is the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio). If SLR is not relaxed, banks cannot expand their balance sheets and are unable to absorb the continuous supply of government bonds released from the fiscal side, resulting in liquidity repeatedly oscillating in a technical cycle of 'draining - replenishing', without forming structural abundance. Within this framework, the driving force of crypto assets remains at the emotional level, lacking the underlying capital increment needed for trend continuation.
In addition, Japan still has the policy motivation to continue raising interest rates, which means that the global arbitrage chain may be forced to retract, and a stronger yen will reflexively squeeze dollar liquidity. If this path is initiated, risk assets may not only fail to gain incremental funds from the US side but may also face cross-market capital withdrawal, posing additional uncertainty to the upward momentum of BTC and ETH.
Therefore, the current price rebound should not be seen as the establishment of a main trend, but rather as an incomplete wager on future policies. As long as the SLR remains unchanged, the path for interest rate cuts is undecided, and Japan has not exited the interest rate hike game, the upward elasticity of BTC and ETH is still constrained by macro factors, with high-leverage positions considered fragile in this phase. The true starting point for market trends is not the 'end of balance sheet reduction', but rather 'the balance sheet being allowed to expand again'.
Before certainty emerges, position management is more important than directional judgment. Waiting has a higher win rate than being aggressive.
