Affected by the Bank of Japan's 'hawkish' stance, the probability of interest rate hikes has risen, leading to renewed panic selling. Bitcoin plummeted from around 90000 to approximately 85800. The daily market trend has not yet shown a bottoming formation, so various indicators have not developed towards a breakout pattern. Therefore, this week will see a second test, fully entering the consolidation range.
BTC
BTC formed a large bearish candlestick with a lower shadow this morning, with the upper and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands continuing to push downwards. Last week, the bulls were looking strong, but the rebound has also been under pressure from the middle band. MACD shows a decrease in bullish momentum, and KDJ has crossed downwards, with the market still favoring the bears.
(1) Last night, the price retraced from the daily rebound high of around 86850 to near this strong support at 83800, with a rebound ratio of 1.168.
(2) Today's rebound high point: 83786 + 3620 = 87,406 (2-hour Bollinger middle track around 87390). Today's resistance is at 87450-87700.
(3) On the 1-hour level, there is capital entering to protect the market, and there is a demand for rebounds. It is recommended to short around 88000, add to the position at 89000, set a stop loss at 89500, and take profit near 85500.
ETH
Last night, when Ethereum dropped to around 2700, spot leverage players began to concentrate on buying. Considering previous buying conditions, 2700-2600 can temporarily be viewed as a buying range for this round of Ethereum's fluctuations.
Currently, it seems that the main force has begun to lean towards Ethereum in the spot market. In the next period, Ethereum may perform better against Bitcoin.
SOL
SOL140-123 is a complete wave that has finished. If shorting again, it is more appropriate to wait for a rebound to 131.5-133.5 before shorting.
136.5 will again become a strong resistance in the short term. If it cannot break through subsequently, the decline space of 120-100 will be opened up.
ZEC
ZEC accelerated its decline after breaking the low of 424 on November 12. Currently, the A wave has not finished yet, with a target around 200. After the A wave is complete, there will be a B wave rebound, with the target near the resistance level shown in the chart. I closed my short position too early previously and can only open a short again during the B wave rebound.
SantaHat
The coin developed by rfc's dev is also a Musk concept. A few days ago, Musk changed his profile picture to one with a Christmas hat. I don't know if this can run, but dev holds quite a bit, and there are multiple binding addresses. The market cap is around 1.3 million, so you can consider buying a little as a lottery ticket.
In the future, when considering altcoins, it's helpful to create a tiered list for clarity.
First layer: Established altcoins / emotional blue chips such as DOGE, SHIB, and some old public chains (LTC, XRP, etc.).
Characteristics: Has a brand, liquidity, and emotional foundation, but its growth elasticity is not as good as it used to be, more of a sector index role.
Second layer: Top public chains / ecological tokens (high Beta blue chips) such as $SOL, $TON, and various popular core coins of L1 / L2 ecosystems.
Characteristics: Has a clear technical path, developers, ecosystems, and capital support. When the market comes, it has great elasticity, but when the cycle is wrong, it can also be severely corrected by the market.
Third layer: New concept / new narrative altcoins (thematic driven), such as AI+Crypto, RWA, DePIN, GameFi, SocialFi, etc.
Characteristics: Every wave of new narratives will produce one or two real 'mainline coins'. Those who truly make money are often: getting on early + daring to get off when it rises to a certain level, rather than fantasizing about holding on until the top.
Fourth layer: Pure shitcoins / all-in bets. This category includes various new memes and contract bets on Twitter.
Characteristics: From 0 to the moon and back to 0 in 24 hours; essentially casino chips. There’s no need to discuss development prospects; it’s only suitable for playing with very small 'entertainment funds'.
So a harsh but necessary fact to accept is:
Altcoins won't disappear, but the 'mindless altcoin season' will become less frequent. What will truly emerge is a structure of 'local sector small bulls + 90% of coins being ignored'.
