ARK Invest's latest post has directly put up a big sign: U.S. market liquidity is really "healing"!
On October 30, after liquidity fell to a multi-year low of $5.56 trillion, with the government shutdown lifted, about $70 billion of the previously withdrawn $621 billion has flowed back into the market. ARK expects that in the next 5-6 weeks, as the Treasury General Account (TGA) returns to normal, an additional $300 billion in liquidity will be released to the market.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has also begun to "breathe a sigh of relief":
New York Fed President John Williams
Waller
San Francisco Fed President Daly
Three heavyweight figures have spoken in support of an interest rate cut, causing the market's implied probability of a rate cut to soar to about 90%.
ARK Invest even provided a bolder assessment:
👉 Quantitative Tightening (QT) may end on December 1, and policy will shift to a more supportive monetary environment.
In summary:
Liquidity is recovering, interest rate cut expectations are skyrocketing, and QT may end—could the market's 'spring' be arriving early?
