I often see a sentence saying that after the financial crisis in 2008, BTC was born to solve the subsequent financial risk problems, and that BTC is digital gold and a safe-haven asset.
So is BTC a safe-haven asset?
See the picture above
This is the market value of all stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market, $130 billion. Does it seem like a lot?
Think about it from another perspective. The market value of the entire cryptocurrency market is trillions of dollars. Before new funds enter the market, it is actually only 130 billion US dollars.
If there is a run on the bank and a market crash, isn’t this more exaggerated than 312 and 519? (We are not considering small capital and retail investors, but mainly considering whether they are risky assets in extreme cases)
So, how does traditional capital view BTC?
Is it a risky asset or a safe-haven asset?
The reason is obvious. Large traditional capital will not choose Bitcoin for hedging at present. They can choose gold. The market value of gold is 12.633T USD (12.633 trillion USD), while BTC is only 472 billion USD. The market value of gold is 30 times that of Bitcoin!
Gold is still rising today, proving that the market's risk aversion sentiment is very serious!
The entire cryptocurrency market is worth only $1.09 trillion. The key point is how much money is currently available to support this $1.09 trillion! All stablecoins are worth just over $130 billion!
And why is BTC surging again?
I think BTC is an emotional asset!
So is the BTC bull market coming?
I think it is too early. Why do I say that? It is mainly because of the hot money problem in the market. How can the market be pulled up without new funds entering the market?
So just observe the release of stablecoins and you will know!
Let’s further derive the BFTP policy. Will there be any hot money coming in?
Although the Federal Reserve lends money to banks facing liquidity shortages, its purpose is not to encourage them to lend, but to ensure that its own deposits are not subject to a run.
Banks have borrowed money from the Federal Reserve, but they dare not relax lending, because these emergency loans must be repaid to the Federal Reserve within one year. Instead, various banks will tighten lending due to the recent bank runs. Therefore, this money will not eventually flow into the market, QE has not come, and hot money has not come out, so let's wait and see!
