There isn't so much reasoning; there are too many short sellers, and it would be a pity not to cut the dealer.

Tonight's market is really interesting.
I didn't expect BTC to diverge from the US stock market—while the US stocks plummeted and the VIX soared, BTC actually rose.

Why is that? The core issue is not complicated; both markets received a macro signal at the same time but reacted completely differently.

First, let's talk about the US stock market. Tech stocks were already in a correction phase, and then at this critical moment, Home Depot's earnings report revealed a bunch of not-so-great data: consumer spending weakened, and economic growth slowed. It's no surprise that US stocks, which are sensitive to economic expectations, came under pressure right away; it's also reasonable that tech stocks continued to decline without rebounding.

But at the same time, due to the economic slowdown, the probability of a rate cut in December was pushed up to 52.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from what I saw two hours ago.
This is the key point of the entire dramatic movement.

Thus, a rare scene appeared:

US stocks fell due to weak economic prospects;
BTC rose due to heightened expectations of rate cuts.

One is negative, the other is positive; the logic is sound, but their simultaneous occurrence makes the movement appear fragmented.

This also indicates that recently BTC has fallen more sharply than US stocks, and that “overselling” imbalance is slowly being corrected by the market. Overall, it seems like the US tech stocks and BTC are trying to find their balance point again.

But one shouldn't be too confident. In the short term, BTC benefits from rate cut expectations, but if US stocks continue to crash, risks further expand, or even experience circuit-breaker-level volatility, BTC cannot completely escape.

In other words: if US stocks are somewhat weak, BTC has room to grow;
if US stocks are very weak, BTC will have to suffer too.

This is the charm of macroeconomics— the same event in different markets can trigger completely different emotions and price fluctuations, and these changes are often difficult to predict in advance.$BTC $ETH $SOL