Weekend news is nerve-wracking; while saying they want to ease tensions, missiles are still flying. Talking about trust, while the ground is in ruins, this sense of disconnection itself indicates one thing— the situation is fundamentally unstable.
Since the Houthis entered the scene, the conflict has evolved from a point of friction to a more complex direction. What the market is really watching is not the battlefield images, but the timeline. If Iran can truly drag the pace beyond two months, the issue will not just be regional conflict, but a chain game involving energy, shipping, and the dollar system.
However, to say "the U.S. has lost, and the petrodollar has ended" is, to be honest, a bit too hasty. The dollar system is not maintained by a single war; it relies on settlement networks, financial depth, and global debt structures. Short-term shocks will cause oil prices to soar and inflation expectations to rise, but shaking the entire system requires long-term structural alternatives, not just a few weeks of sentiment.
The real impact is in energy. As long as the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz remains, oil prices will be hard to stabilize. When oil prices rise, inflation returns, central bank policy space tightens, and risk assets take the hit. This chain is much more practical than the "end of the system" notion.
As for gold, having a bit more hedging position isn't wrong, but don't treat it as a panacea. Gold rises on panic premiums, not on the apocalypse. When the sentiment recedes, it will return to logic.
What matters more now is not shouting slogans, but managing positions well. The greatest destructive power of geopolitical risk is not a one-time crash, but prolonged volatility and disrupted rhythms. What the market fears most is not bad news, but the persistence of uncertainty.
The weekend was chaotic, but what truly decides direction is the changes in energy prices and capital flows in the coming weeks. Don’t rush to declare who wins and who loses; first, see where the money goes.
$XAU
