Last night's market was enough to be recorded in trading history. Gold plunged nearly $200 within 30 minutes, breaking through the $5000 integer mark; silver fell sharply by 10% in a single day, with severity comparable to the largest stock market crash in history.
Many people are asking: Why have safe-haven assets stopped being safe?
If you only focus on the candlestick charts, you'll be scared out of the market; but if you dissect the macro capital flows, the logic is actually very clear. Here are three core points of review and the outlook for tonight's CPI:
1. A typical example of a liquidity crisis
Last night's crash was not due to a deterioration in gold's fundamentals, but rather a typical case of forced liquidation. The source is the AI sector in the US stock market. The market panicked over the return on massive capital expenditures in AI, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks that caused institutional accounts to withdraw. To cover stock market margin calls, traders had to sell the most liquid assets, namely gold and silver.
2. The boosting effect of algorithmic trading
Why did it drop so quickly? Because it broke through key levels. The market has accumulated a large number of stop-loss orders in the $5000-$5100 range. Once the price falls below $5000, it triggers the automatic sell orders of CTA strategies, and this negative feedback loop leads to a cliff-like decline.
3. Is the bull market over? The logic of institutions has not changed
Although the short-term pattern has broken, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have not changed their bullish outlook, with JPM even maintaining a year-end target of $6000-$6300. The core logic supporting gold prices includes geopolitical games, central bank gold purchases, concerns over U.S. debt credit, etc. These factors have not disappeared due to last night's decline. On the contrary, such a sharp drop often serves as a process to clean up high leverage positions.
How do you see tonight's CPI?
The sharp drop last night actually released some short selling momentum in advance. Tonight's CPI data will determine whether gold is a dead cat bounce or a V-shaped recovery. The market expects the overall CPI to drop to 2.5% or even 2.4%. If the data is as weak as expected (below 2.5%), it will reignite bets on interest rate cuts. The dollar index has retreated, and gold is expected to stabilize and rebound above $4800, repairing the technical outlook. If CPI unexpectedly rebounds, gold prices may further probe for new support.
Brothers, don't fall before dawn. Last night was a misstep in liquidity, while tonight is the pricing of macro fundamentals. Pay attention to the support at the previous low of $4878; after this round of washing out, the real exchange of chips has just begun.$XAU #CPI数据来袭
