The sudden change in tariff policy has triggered a short-term market rebound, but structural pressures remain.
1. Policy shift
- The U.S. suddenly suspended additional tariffs on allies (retaining 10%), but maintains a 125% tariff on China; auto tariffs (25%+10%) remain unchanged. For details, see: Trump's new tariff policy's deep logic and market impact
Just like the viewpoint in the daily report on April 3: The dramatic turn in Trump's tariff policy confirms the previous judgment—that so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' are just bluster; only the 10% baseline tariff is the real intention. This hasty policy reversal, disregarding even basic diplomatic etiquette, exposes the randomness of its trade policy. Even retaining a 124% tariff on China (even mistakenly referred to as 125% by Trump) merely continues existing policies without substantial escalation.
In this trade game, China had already made comprehensive preparations. When the U.S. launched its offensive, it had already fallen into the preset strategic layout. With a rigorous response strategy, China has put the U.S. in a dilemma. Now, the U.S. has to pay the price for its hasty decision-making—not only has its international reputation been damaged, but it has also exposed the limitations of its policy deterrence.
It is worth noting that the U.S. initially thought that a 10% tariff would achieve its goals, but China obviously will not stop there. This game of chess is far from over, and the subsequent developments will be more meaningful. The current situation fully demonstrates that in the face of a well-prepared strategy, blusterous tactics will ultimately be in vain.
2. Market reaction
- Risk assets rebounded (U.S. stocks ↑, VIX ↓), recession fears eased temporarily, but auto tariffs may continue to push up inflation.
3. Subsequent impacts
- May data distortion; inflation pressure may become more apparent starting in June, and the Federal Reserve remains on the sidelines.
4. Capital pattern
- Short-term capital drives the rebound, while long-term capital remains motionless, indicating that the market has not truly strengthened.
5. Conclusion
- Emotionally restorative rise, not a trend reversal; high-tariff areas (like autos) still face inflation risks.
The strategic game behind the trade war: a carefully designed ambush.
Strategic situation reversal
China has dragged the U.S. into the preset battlefield with precise predictions and systematic plans.
Countermeasures are quick and decisive, rejecting traditional negotiation models, demonstrating strategic confidence.
Comparison of economic strength
According to purchasing power parity, China's economic scale has reached 1.3 times that of the U.S.
The real capacity advantage in manufacturing is evident: the actual capacity of the U.S. is only 1/4 of that of China.
Dollar system crisis
Long-term 'currency capability' has led to industrial hollowing out, with real competitiveness being severely overestimated.
The trade war accelerates the exposure of the dollar's credit foundation's fragility.
Strategic insights
The current situation is not a temporary response but a result of long-term strategic layout.
The global supply chain and value chain are undergoing deep reconstruction.
Digital assets (BTC) may become a value anchor under the new order.
This contest far exceeds the traditional scope of a trade war; it is essentially a strategic game for dominance in the global governance system. China has successfully transformed tactical trade frictions into strategic institutional competition through systematic strategic preparation. The dollar system faces not only short-term shocks but also a deep-seated credit crisis. In this paradigm shift, traditional valuation systems face reconstruction, and emerging value-storing methods will gain historic opportunities.
BTC
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ETH
Those who did not get washed out around 1430 yesterday can still benefit from this rebound, with the gap of 1660-1680 just completed! The breakthrough at 1639 disrupts the H4 structure; a pullback near the gap at 1570 can be followed! Risk: If H4 closes below 1570, continue to wait for the layout in the 1480-1385 area!
SOL
Partners who followed the daily report to enter around 105-101 yesterday have made at least 15 points profit! The range of 120-122 in the chart was hit precisely! The breakthrough at 113 forms structural damage on H4; a pullback to 112-111 can be followed! Prepare for defense at 107-102!
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