Right now is the most divided market I've ever seen.
Bulls see this as the final dip before altseason takes off.
Bears insist $BTC bull run is finished.
Here’s exactly how the market could reverse and why👇🧵
Cryptocurrency cycles are evolving yearly, and everything is changing.
We've already seen what happened in this cycle:
- Meme coins replaced Altseason.
- Ethereum is trading at the same price as 4 years ago, still not updating its ATH.
- Bitcoin managed to test the ATH, as well as the $100,000 mark, but failed to consolidate.
This is what it means 👇
▫️ Option 1
As you already understood, this cycle is different from the previous ones.
In the previous cycle, there was a lack of investment and savings from institutions, countries, and large companies. Now the picture is different; they are all actively accumulating BTC and other coins.
BlackRock: 577,919 BTC
MicroStrategy: 330,645 BTC
Countries:👇
Long-term attention and pressure on $BTC will increase, which will lead to the following:
- Bitcoin dominance will increase.
- Bitcoin will be a leader, just like gold, or a cut above.
- The spills/kickbacks will not be so serious, as they will be actively bought out.
But such movements only lead to a rejection of altcoins, as well as a decrease in attention to them
Altcoins are getting less liquidity and interest.
None of the sectors can actively accumulate liquidity because more assets are in the market and they are distributed.
This can be seen on the charts when comparing the MEME sector and DeFi sector:
- Last cycle: memecoin market was half that of DeFi.
- This cycle: memecoin market cap equals or exceeds DeFi's.
This stops one of the sectors from skyrocketing.
This cycle is really different:
- Bitcoin dominance continues to increase as more people/companies/countries choose to hold capital (which is key) in Bitcoin
- The fate of altcoins will depend on trends, whichever goes viral faster will be the category that gets pumped (mini bull)
Previous cycle scenarios are no longer applicable, we need to adapt to what we have now.
▫️Option 2
We are still in the process of determining when the correction will occur.
Bitcoin needs to go through stages of accumulation, decline, despair, so that then there will be growth, which not many will wait for
Bitcoin's recent decline stands at just -24.82% below its all-time high, a relatively small drop.
In earlier bull markets, Bitcoin has often fallen back 40-50% from its peak before rallying again.
Based on past performance, this suggests significant potential for further growth.
If we look at the cycles, the growth of altcoins started in parallel with the growth of $ETH
but this time we did not even see an attempt to beat the previous ATH
This means that the altcoin season is postponed indefinitely...
ETH/BTC signal
If there is a reversal in the ETH/BTC situation, we could see a rally in altcoins as capital starts to flow into them.
With the recent meme coin rug pulls from presidents/individuals, people are increasingly turning to DeFi, RWA, and other utility sectors.
Investors are not considering and do not expect Bitcoin to fall by 40-50%, which is a signal for a long-term game.
Most are leaving and will leave this race in the future, because it is impossible to constantly be in confusion, falling prices, and liquidations.
How to survive?
- If Bitcoin is going to strengthen, long $BTC, short weak coins
- If you see that altcoins have found the bottom, do not hesitate to buy a couple of fundamentally strong coins from the top 100.