October 22, 2023 Grandpa checks in
Similar to what I said yesterday, Big Pie has still made several attempts, but so far they have not been able to stabilize at 30,000. According to the past breakthroughs in pressure levels, there is a high probability that the results of multiple attempts will end in failure. However, judging from the market sentiment, there is no happy atmosphere when the pie returns to 30,000, which shows that not many friends opened positions when it fell to 26,000. This may explain that in the long-term bear market, investors It has lost confidence in the market and has not responded to market changes with a positive attitude. If we look at it from this perspective, I think the probability of a short-term breakthrough of 30,000 is not completely impossible. It is very likely that it will break through first and then fall.
Of course, investment is a probabilistic behavior. Since there is a high probability of bearishness, I still choose to defend at this position and maintain the swing operation. At the same time, I and a small group of friends have made ten-period fixed investments. This month, both mainstream and copycat stocks have caught some stocks with advanced gains. We will choose to take some profits at this time point, and keep the profitable positions to prepare for the big bull market in 2025. Similarly, it is also advisable to change positions of some copycat stocks with advanced gains at the pressure level, without too much fomo.
According to data from CME Fed Watch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% in November is 99.9%, and it will basically keep interest rates unchanged. Remaining unchanged is definitely in line with market expectations, because the siphoning effect of the US dollar on funds is already very significant, and even if interest rates are kept high, it will continue to suck blood from all sources of funds. From a macro policy perspective, there is no foundation for a big bull market now, both emotionally and financially, so there is no need to be overly FOMO about this rise.
Of course, the market may give you opportunities this time, but if you continue to maintain a light position or even a short position, you need to think carefully about how to deal with the next market. The market value of USDT has reached 84.3 billion US dollars, a record high. After all, the B-circle is a relatively independent market. The market value of stablecoins is the key to determining future prices. In the ongoing bear market, the market value of USDT continues to grow, indicating that funds still recognize this market. With the recovery of security and confidence, the market value of the B-circle will return to its peak. What we need to do is to be prepared for the bear market.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
