Daily Share
The market currently falls below 27600, which basically confirms a 1h-level decline. Now it mainly depends on whether the price falls below 27160. If it falls below 27160, the 4h-level decline will be successful.
Regarding the recent market conditions, the overall big picture should be relatively clear. From 31800 to 24900, it was a daily level decline. From 24,900 to the present, it is a daily-level rebound. My personal view has always been that this daily-level rebound cannot break above 30,000, and then there will be a third daily-level decline, with a target decline of more than 8,000 US dollars.
Therefore, our idea is to arrange the next mid-term short order in the daily decline.
Then we follow this line of thought to see whether the second daily level rebound structure has been completed. As far as the current stage of the daily level rebound is concerned, it has already formed the up, down, and up 4h level structures. In principle, the daily level rebound has met the basic three-structure, and the daily level rebound can end at any time and start a daily level decline.
However, the more difficult problem is that after the third 4h-level rebound of Bitcoin to 28580, it has been in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the decline has not been smooth. In addition, after the third 4h-level rebound of Bitcoin, whether there will be a fourth callback and then a fifth rebound, so that the daily level rebound will extend through the 4h-level center, this is also uncertain for the time being.
The combination of multiple factors will make it difficult for everyone to arrange a mid-term short position. In addition, finding a suitable stop loss position is also a major difficulty. Of course, there is actually a solution, which is to maintain a light position at the top and relative top of the daily level rebound. If the subsequent trend is confirmed, consider adding positions.
The above is our overall mid-term thinking. If mid-term operations are difficult, is it easy for short-term operations? In fact, short-term operations are also difficult. One is that the structure of the big pie's oscillation has always been non-standard recently. Sometimes there is still some uncertainty whether a transaction has been completed. Therefore, some people who have been playing short-term recently may have been repeatedly stopped out.
BTC short term
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
At the 1h level, first of all, there is a 1h level decline starting from around 28100. This 1h level decline should not be over yet. Let's see if it can fall below 27160 again. If it falls below, it means that there is a 4h level decline somewhere below 28580~27160. So let's observe here first. If it does not fall below, we should continue to look at it according to the 27200~28200 central axis oscillation until we find a direction.
If the 4h level decline of Bitcoin is confirmed, then we can further discuss the strength of the 4h level decline, taking 26500 as the short-term long-short dividing line. If the 4h level decline does not break this position, there is a certain possibility of another 4h level rebound to 28500. A high probability of breaking this level means that the daily level decline has been confirmed.
In terms of thinking logic, it is actually a series of links.
15M：
At the 15-minute level, this is the third 15-minute level decline of the 1h level decline. This is not a divergence, so there is a probability that it will fall below 27160 in the future, thus forming a 4h level decline. Then we will mainly focus on the support of the 26500 position in the future.
ETH
At the 4h level of Ethereum, we can see that the third 4h level rebound of the previous daily level rebounded from 1563 to 1751, which is basically not divergent, but the current 4h level decline has fallen from 1750 to around 1580, which is close to the starting point of the previous 4h level rebound. So for Ethereum, my judgment is that whether Ethereum can currently fall below 1560, the daily level rebound of Ethereum is likely to end. Even if there is a 4h level rebound in the future, it will be difficult to break through 1750 again.
Of course, the above is based on a certain probability. If Ethereum does fall below 1560, it can basically be directly declared that the daily rebound is over. If Ethereum declares the end of the daily level rebound, in fact, Bitcoin is almost over.
At the 1h level, Ethereum failed to rebound at the 1h level today. If it can stabilize around 1570~1580, it has a chance to rebound at the 1h level to around 1650. We can observe the details. At the 15-minute level, continue to pay attention to the situation around 1560.
Trend Direction
Weekly level: Downward direction, weekly level is in the process of oscillating decline
Daily level: The direction is downward. The daily level rebound may have ended, but further observation is still needed to see whether it will extend.
4-hour level: The direction is downward, the probability of a decline at the 4h level increases, and breaking 27160 will be confirmed
1-hour level: The direction is downward, and a 1h-level decline is running, which is expected to be not yet completed.
15-minute level: The direction is downward. The third 15-minute level down is not a divergence. Normally, it will take 5 strokes, unless it can be pulled back above 27800.