As interest rates come to an end, we are about to enter a period of pause. But the process may be different than everyone expects.
1. Although the Federal Reserve has indicated that it may raise interest rates again this year, the market generally believes that this is unlikely. However, it is no longer critical whose prediction is more accurate, because the pause period is gradually approaching.
2. Since 1990, U.S. stocks have experienced multiple pauses, and the duration of these periods varies: up to 13 months, as short as only 2 months, and on average about 10 months. If calculated based on this average, assuming no interest rate increases this year, the current interest rates may continue until August 2024. By then, the BTC halving event will also be a thing of the past.
3. Historically, U.S. stocks usually show an upward trend during periods of pause.
4. It is worth noting that economic recessions usually do not occur during the interest rate hike or pause phase. It is more likely that it will come months after the rate cuts begin, or even longer. According to this pattern, future economic recession may not arrive until at least 2025.
5. If interest rates are indeed raised this year, the wait for the end of the moratorium may be longer. This means that the monetary easing policy expected by many people in 2024 may not come as expected.
Of course, the above analysis is based on past data. While history often repeats itself, circumstances may be different each time. This time the Fed may keep interest rates on hold for longer than we think. Therefore, it is crucial to remain patient and prepare for a long battle.
1. Although the Federal Reserve has indicated that it may raise interest rates again this year, the market generally believes that this is unlikely. However, it is no longer critical whose prediction is more accurate, because the pause period is gradually approaching.
2. Since 1990, U.S. stocks have experienced multiple pauses, and the duration of these periods varies: up to 13 months, as short as only 2 months, and on average about 10 months. If calculated based on this average, assuming no interest rate increases this year, the current interest rates may continue until August 2024. By then, the BTC halving event will also be a thing of the past.
3. Historically, U.S. stocks usually show an upward trend during periods of pause.
4. It is worth noting that economic recessions usually do not occur during the interest rate hike or pause phase. It is more likely that it will come months after the rate cuts begin, or even longer. According to this pattern, future economic recession may not arrive until at least 2025.
5. If interest rates are indeed raised this year, the wait for the end of the moratorium may be longer. This means that the monetary easing policy expected by many people in 2024 may not come as expected.
Of course, the above analysis is based on past data. While history often repeats itself, circumstances may be different each time. This time the Fed may keep interest rates on hold for longer than we think. Therefore, it is crucial to remain patient and prepare for a long battle.