Before the analysis, let's first understand the recent changes in the global financial environment: the US dollar index has rebounded to 107, the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields hit a 2007 high, the yen fell to the 150 mark against the US dollar, the gold market fell sharply, Russia and Saudi Arabia cut oil production and oil prices rose, which forced the US dollar to continue to be strong.

Will the Fed’s interest rate hikes lead to its own collapse? In fact, in addition to interest rate hikes, the United States has enough tools to suppress commodity prices. The world has reached a relatively dangerous time, but it has not reached the most dangerous moment. From the current perspective, every step taken is to avoid this result. The reason for repeated weighing is to control the intensity and timing. If it is too strong, others may be fine, but it may kill itself. If it is too little, it will be a drizzle with no effect. Only if the intensity is sufficient, the pressure can be absorbed internally, and some external economic powers can collapse first, then the prices of commodities will definitely be affected.

There is a negative correlation between the US dollar index and the commodity price index. As the pricing currency for commodities, the dollar strengthens, and commodities priced in dollars will certainly weaken. A stronger dollar means that the purchasing power of the dollar is enhanced. The same amount of dollars can buy more commodities, which will cool down the inflation problem in the United States. This also means that the United States’ own problems have been solved.

The United States deliberately waged a financial war and a war of public opinion. First, it wanted to make China's real estate problem explode and then criticize the Chinese economy globally in order to force all funds to leave China. However, if the Chinese economy is brought down and the demand for commodities drops sharply, then global asset prices will inevitably plummet.

Everything is cooked in the same pot. The United States is now constantly guiding expectations and adjusting its strength. The premise is to let other countries collapse first and not let itself get hurt. Of course, it is also very difficult for the United States to do so. For example, the interests of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other countries are basically the same. Judging from the prices of commodities, especially oil, they can still hold up for now, but there is still a period of game.

The current price of bulk commodities is a barometer of the game between major powers, including the future appreciation of the yen, which will cause a double siphon effect. Therefore, the water in the pot will inevitably continue to heat up. This is what the Federal Reserve wants to do. It's either you or me.