As shown below, the ETH/BTC exchange rate

Watch ETH's strong reversal to catch up with BTC.

ETH looks at the red supply line and demand area (1550-1585) that was broken in the second test. For short-term and medium-term investors, you can consider using the 123 rule and stop profit near 1750. Personally, I think this is an opportunity to take a long-term position. First look at 1877 and 1950.

One more thing to add, if the price tests this area, such as seeing a spring, such as quickly closing a long pin, or closing a pinbar, or engulfing, piercing, etc., it is all OK. Waiting for the subsequent continuous 3H to basically confirm that it is safe to hold, especially there must be no weak rebound, such as 3L after the pin, here must be a strong rebound.

As long as any hourly line or 4-hour line breaks through the green demand line at the bottom of the picture below, the bulls will move forward without hesitation.

Take a look at the current supply and demand situation in the market, as shown below

Purchasing power has not really left the market, and it is still the same until now. I will not be bearish until I see a large amount of purchasing power leaving the market, and the US dollar index can already be predicted to reverse in advance.

The reason for the scarce supply in the market is shown in the figure below. Currently, the long-term holdings of BTC are 14,852,960, accounting for 77% of the total circulation. The increase is slow, but it is still rising.

77% of BTC is lying flat and not involved in short-term turnover. (In addition, glassnode defines long-term as long-term if it has not been traded for more than 155 days)

In the past five days, BTC from 26000-26700 has shifted to 27400-28100.

It can be considered as short-term turnover behavior, but the quantity is not large.

Let's talk about BTC 28830 again. BTC 28830 has been trapped for more than a month, and has shrunk from 1 million to 6354 million. In the previous article, I emphasized that when the chips are almost diluted here, it is time to officially break through and buy upward. Now it is almost there, but even if 28830-29000 is reached in the next two weeks, there will still be a lot of selling pressure.

Things to note when planning the Monkey Market at this stage:

1. Direction selection:

Try to choose small market capitalization coins with news

Choose a station with traffic (such as dwf in this round)

Choose the one that is unlocked (the project party takes the opportunity to pull the price and ship)

2. Position management:

There is no doubt that now is not a good time to make money, so I think a 20% position is already generous.

3. Strict stop loss

Whether it is spot or contract, I think stop loss is needed (fixed investment or hoarding coins are not counted). When liquidity is sufficient, I often stop loss at 20 points, but now, the bottom line is 10 points.

4. Don’t hesitate, don’t be fussy

At this stage, many opportunities are one-wave flow, and the market often appears, so when you rush, don't be entangled or hesitate, set a stop loss, and don't be sloppy even if there is profit. 10 to 30 points is a relatively normal range in this cycle. If the trend is not right, just admit defeat directly, and don't have strange ideas to trap yourself.

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