In this analysis, where Bitcoin prices are examined using the NUPL metric, recovery processes in different price cycles are discussed. NUPL reflects market sentiment by calculating investors' unrealized profit/loss based on the Bitcoin market price.
- When NUPL falls below zero, it signals market capitulation and transition to a bear market, while when it remains above zero, recovery and market optimism are observed.
- Comparing the 9-month Bitcoin valuation in 2015-2017, 2019-2021 and the current cycle with the unrealized profit/loss of investors, a decreasing trend in confidence and optimism is seen: 60%, 42% and 30%.
- With the maturation of the Bitcoin market and the inflow of smart capital, it seems unlikely that the excitement levels of 2017 will be experienced again. Investors with high short-term price sensitivity may experience more disappointment and psychological pressure.
- When NUPL falls below zero, it signals market capitulation and transition to a bear market, while when it remains above zero, recovery and market optimism are observed.
- Comparing the 9-month Bitcoin valuation in 2015-2017, 2019-2021 and the current cycle with the unrealized profit/loss of investors, a decreasing trend in confidence and optimism is seen: 60%, 42% and 30%.
- With the maturation of the Bitcoin market and the inflow of smart capital, it seems unlikely that the excitement levels of 2017 will be experienced again. Investors with high short-term price sensitivity may experience more disappointment and psychological pressure.